Straight Elo value on MLB moneylines: bet either side when Elo win probability beats the best price by 4%.
baseball · Match winner (2-way) · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-03 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | $10.00 | 1.65 | $6.48 | +9% | — | pending |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Detroit Tigers v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 | $10.00 | 2.05 | $10.51 | +4% | +10.51 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in St. Louis Cardinals v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.18 | $10.00 | 2.18 | $11.80 | +9% | +11.80 | won |
New York Yankees win in Washington Nationals v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.91 | $10.00 | 1.91 | $9.10 | +8% | +9.10 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 | $10.00 | 2.10 | $11.00 | +22% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.30 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 | $10.00 | 2.01 | $10.10 | +8% | +10.10 | won |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | $10.00 | 1.65 | $6.48 | +9% | +6.48 | won |
Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +5% | +7.32 | won |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 | $10.00 | 2.19 | $11.87 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in New York Mets v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 | $10.00 | 2.05 | $10.51 | +7% | +10.51 | won |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Cincinnati Reds v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +4% | +9.32 | won |
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.50 | $10.00 | 1.50 | $5.02 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | $10.00 | 1.83 | $8.27 | +7% | +8.27 | won |
Seattle Mariners win in Tampa Bay Rays v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | +6% | +13.42 | won |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | $10.00 | 1.67 | $6.75 | +11% | +6.75 | won |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +13% | +9.32 | won |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 | +15% | -10.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in New York Mets v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 | $10.00 | 2.19 | $11.87 | +14% | +11.87 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +6% | — | pending |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +18% | -10.00 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | $10.00 | 1.97 | $9.70 | +8% | +9.70 | won |
San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.52 | $10.00 | 3.52 | $25.24 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in Colorado Rockies v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +4% | +7.94 | won |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | $10.00 | 1.67 | $6.75 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | $10.00 | 2.14 | $11.40 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | $10.00 | 1.57 | $5.71 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.15 | $10.00 | 2.15 | $11.50 | +23% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Oakland Athletics v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +15% | +12.00 | won |
Boston Red Sox win in Los Angeles Angels v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 | $10.00 | 2.00 | $10.00 | +12% | +10.00 | won |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.82 | $10.00 | 1.82 | $8.20 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Washington Nationals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.40 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.95 | $10.00 | 1.95 | $9.50 | +25% | +9.50 | won |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | $10.00 | 1.57 | $5.70 | +7% | +5.70 | won |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | $10.00 | 1.83 | $8.30 | +9% | +8.30 | won |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 | $10.00 | 2.10 | $11.00 | +15% | -10.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.