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Elo value MLB

Straight Elo value on MLB moneylines: bet either side when Elo win probability beats the best price by 4%.

The rule, in plain words

  • Probabilities come from: Elo rating (strength score updated after every match; converted to a win probability).
  • Bets any Match winner (2-way) selection where the model's probability × best available price beats 1.00 by more than 4% — i.e. the model thinks the outcome is meaningfully more likely than the price implies.
  • Stakes: flat $10 per bet.

baseball · Match winner (2-way) · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-03 · same $1000 start as every other strategy

$861.91
balance (started at $1000)
-138.09
-2.6% return on money staked
266/524
bets won / settled
16 bets still pending

Every bet this strategy madelatest 100

BetStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29
$10.002.29$12.88+5%—pending
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29
$10.002.29$12.88+7%—pending
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83
$10.001.83$8.27+10%—pending
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57
$10.001.57$5.71+10%—pending
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89
$10.002.89$18.95
+20%
—
pending
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76
$10.001.76$7.63+4%—pending
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86
$10.001.86$8.61+14%—pending
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70
$10.001.70$7.03+17%—pending
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.98
$10.001.98$9.80+8%—pending
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79
$10.001.79$7.94+8%—pending
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40
$10.002.40$13.99+12%—pending
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65
$10.001.65$6.48+5%+6.48won
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57
$10.001.57$5.71+5%-10.00lost
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60
$10.001.60$5.96+10%+5.96won
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.52
$10.001.52$5.24+6%+5.24won
Philadelphia Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24
$10.002.24$12.36+6%-10.00lost
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.08
$10.003.08$20.77+29%-10.00lost
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76
$10.001.76$7.63+5%-10.00lost
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76
$10.001.76$7.63+9%+7.63won
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86
$10.001.86$8.61+5%-10.00lost
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83
$10.001.83$8.27+5%+8.27won
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.38
$10.001.38$3.80+6%+3.80won
Texas Rangers win in Seattle Mariners v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34
$10.002.34$13.42+6%-10.00lost
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05
$10.002.05$10.51+5%+10.51won
Cincinnati Reds win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.40
$10.003.40$24.00+6%-10.00lost
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.78
$10.001.78$7.80+6%+7.80won
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.96
$10.001.96$9.60+8%+9.60won
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66
$10.002.66$16.59+6%+16.59won
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83
$10.001.83$8.27+4%-10.00lost
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.48
$10.001.48$4.80+13%+4.80won
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.48
$10.001.48$4.80+8%-10.00lost
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79
$10.001.79$7.94+6%+7.94won
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.62
$10.002.62$16.20+4%-10.00lost
Cincinnati Reds win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.66
$10.003.66$26.57+13%-10.00lost
Chicago Cubs win in Milwaukee Brewers v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.73
$10.002.73$17.33+13%-10.00lost
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90
$10.001.90$8.96+8%-10.00lost
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79
$10.001.79$7.94+5%-10.00lost
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70
$10.001.70$7.03+6%-10.00lost
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.38
$10.001.38$3.80+6%+3.80won
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60
$10.001.60$5.96+15%-10.00lost
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89
$10.002.89$18.90+15%+18.90won
St. Louis Cardinals win in San Francisco Giants v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.18
$10.002.18$11.80+7%-10.00lost
Atlanta Braves win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52
$10.002.52$15.20+8%-10.00lost
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76
$10.001.76$7.63+5%+7.63won
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57
$10.001.57$5.71+9%+5.71won
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79
$10.001.79$7.94+5%+7.94won
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55
$10.001.55$5.47+12%+5.47won
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.51
$10.001.51$5.10+6%+5.10won
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.94
$10.001.94$9.40+6%-10.00lost
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27
$10.002.27$12.70+4%+12.70won
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20
$10.002.20$12.00+5%-10.00lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in Colorado Rockies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79
$10.001.79$7.94+8%+7.94won
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93
$10.001.93$9.32+11%-10.00lost
Oakland Athletics win in Seattle Mariners v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18
$10.003.18$21.80+8%+21.80won
St. Louis Cardinals win in Colorado Rockies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79
$10.001.79$7.94+8%-10.00lost
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24
$10.002.24$12.36+7%-10.00lost
Toronto Blue Jays win in Kansas City Royals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01
$10.002.01$10.10+4%+10.10won
San Francisco Giants win in New York Mets v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46
$10.002.46$14.59+4%+14.59won
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24
$10.002.24$12.36+7%-10.00lost
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79
$10.001.79$7.94+8%-10.00lost
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29
$10.002.29$12.88+12%-10.00lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in Colorado Rockies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79
$10.001.79$7.94+6%+7.94won
Washington Nationals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.80
$10.003.80$28.00+13%-10.00lost
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09
$10.002.09$10.95+8%+10.95won
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76
$10.001.76$7.63+6%+7.63won
San Francisco Giants win in New York Mets v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52
$10.002.52$15.22+6%-10.00lost
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86
$10.001.86$8.61+9%-10.00lost
Toronto Blue Jays win in Kansas City Royals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09
$10.002.09$10.95+6%+10.95won
Chicago White Sox win in Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34
$10.002.34$13.42+7%-10.00lost
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.02
$10.002.02$10.20+11%-10.00lost
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20
$10.002.20$12.00+7%-10.00lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18
$10.003.18$21.78+6%+21.78won
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.40
$10.003.40$24.00+13%-10.00lost
Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01
$10.002.01$10.10+7%+10.10won
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60
$10.001.60$5.96+5%-10.00lost
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05
$10.002.05$10.51+10%-10.00lost
New York Yankees win in Los Angeles Angels v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62
$10.001.62$6.21+6%+6.21won
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14
$10.002.14$11.40+7%-10.00lost
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70
$10.001.70$7.03+11%-10.00lost
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93
$10.001.93$9.32+5%-10.00lost
Baltimore Orioles win in Colorado Rockies v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73
$10.001.73$7.32+7%-10.00lost
Baltimore Orioles win in Colorado Rockies v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74
$10.001.74$7.40+8%-10.00lost
Milwaukee Brewers win in Chicago Cubs v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.11
$10.002.11$11.10+5%+11.10won
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57
$10.001.57$5.71+5%-10.00lost
Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76
$10.001.76$7.63+8%+7.63won
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14
$10.002.14$11.40+8%-10.00lost
Toronto Blue Jays win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46
$10.002.46$14.59+14%-10.00lost
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73
$10.001.73$7.32+13%-10.00lost
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46
$10.002.46$14.59+5%+14.59won
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.08
$10.002.08$10.80+5%-10.00lost
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.07
$10.002.07$10.70+5%+10.70won
New York Yankees win in Los Angeles Angels v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65
$10.001.65$6.48+4%-10.00lost
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60
$10.001.60$5.96+6%-10.00lost
Baltimore Orioles win in Colorado Rockies v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70
$10.001.70$7.03+4%+7.03won
Detroit Tigers win in Minnesota Twins v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09
$10.002.09$10.95+7%-10.00lost
Oakland Athletics win in Texas Rangers v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89
$10.002.89$18.95+5%-10.00lost
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62
$10.001.62$6.21+7%+6.21won
Chicago White Sox win in Minnesota Twins v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05
$10.002.05$10.50+8%-10.00lost
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.51
$10.002.51$15.10+10%-10.00lost
Kansas City Royals win in Cleveland Guardians v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.72
$10.002.72$17.20+11%-10.00lost

"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.