← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 20, 06:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Martín Pérez (ERA 3.07, WHIP 1.26) · home: Hunter Brown (ERA 3.43, WHIP 1.29)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Braves win in Houston Astros v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 | Portfolio | $8.32 | 2.21 | $10.07 | +6% | +10.07 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in Houston Astros v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.21 | $12.10 | +14% | +12.10 | won |
leg 1: New York Mets win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 lost leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Houston Astros v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won leg 3: Toronto Blue Jays win in Texas Rangers v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.50 | $19.00 | +17% | -2.00 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Houston Astros v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.09 | $10.95 | +6% | +10.95 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 54% | 5.90 |
| Atlanta Braves win | 46% | 2.24 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 2.19 | 2.18 | -0.2% | |
| Houston Astros win | 1.57 | 1.70 | +8.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Houston Astros | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Astros | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1494.22 | 1546.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.84 | 4.46 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.20 |