← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 20, 06:35 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Jacob deGrom (ERA 3.79, WHIP 1.07)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Toronto Blue Jays win in Texas Rangers v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | +12% | +13.42 | won |
leg 1: New York Mets win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 lost leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Houston Astros v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won leg 3: Toronto Blue Jays win in Texas Rangers v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.50 | $19.00 | +17% | -2.00 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Texas Rangers v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.14 | $11.40 | +5% | +11.40 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers win | 56% | 2.40 |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 44% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 2.24 | 2.14 | -4.3% | |
| Texas Rangers win | 1.56 | 1.70 | +9.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Texas Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Texas Rangers | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1497.76 | 1509.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.10 | -12.48 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.70 |