← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Sep 20, 05:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Cristopher Sánchez (ERA 2.93, WHIP 1.22) · home: Jonah Tong (ERA 3.43, WHIP 1.19)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Mets win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.51 | Portfolio | $8.69 | 2.51 | $13.12 | +7% | -8.69 | lost |
leg 1: New York Mets win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 lost leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Houston Astros v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won leg 3: Toronto Blue Jays win in Texas Rangers v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 10.50 | $19.00 | +17% | -2.00 | lost |
New York Mets win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
New York Mets win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 58% | 1.70 |
| New York Mets win | 42% | 46.79 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.62 | 1.60 | -1.6% | |
| New York Mets win | 2.05 | 2.41 | +17.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1498.71 | 1548.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.65 | -6.59 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.30 |