Baseball is the highest-variance major sport (rating->win only +0.12) yet the public loves favorites. Back MLB underdogs priced 2.2-3.5 when our Elo edge is at worst -3%.
baseball · Match winner (2-way) · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-03 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 won leg 2: Chicago White Sox win in TBD v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 won | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 | -48% | +15.88 | won |
Boston Red Sox win in New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 won leg 2: Chicago White Sox win in TBD v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 won | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | -56% | +12.00 | won |
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.72 lost |
| $10.00 |
| 2.72 |
| $17.20 |
| -46% |
| -10.00 |
| lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +46% | +14.59 | won |
Tampa Bay Rays win in Philadelphia Phillies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 | $10.00 | 2.32 | $13.20 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +6% | +12.36 | won |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.40 | $10.00 | 3.40 | $24.00 | +26% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.81 | $10.00 | 2.81 | $18.11 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
Los Angeles Angels win in Seattle Mariners v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.67 | $10.00 | 2.67 | $16.70 | -3% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 | $10.00 | 2.21 | $12.10 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -2% | +12.88 | won |
Tampa Bay Rays win in Philadelphia Phillies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | -0% | +12.36 | won |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +12% | +12.36 | won |
San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.55 | $10.00 | 2.55 | $15.50 | -0% | +15.50 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Chicago Cubs v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.80 | $10.00 | 2.80 | $18.00 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
Tampa Bay Rays win in New York Yankees v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 | $10.00 | 2.32 | $13.20 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Pittsburgh Pirates v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | $10.00 | 2.40 | $14.00 | -3% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
Los Angeles Angels win in Seattle Mariners v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 | $10.00 | 2.66 | $16.59 | +0% | +16.59 | won |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +27% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Detroit Tigers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.60 | $10.00 | 2.60 | $16.00 | +1% | +16.00 | won |
Tampa Bay Rays win in New York Yankees v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.36 | $10.00 | 2.36 | $13.60 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 | $10.00 | 2.27 | $12.70 | +11% | -10.00 | lost |
Cincinnati Reds win in Atlanta Braves v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.19 | $10.00 | 3.19 | $21.90 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | -2% | +15.22 | won |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Pittsburgh Pirates v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
Houston Astros win in Seattle Mariners v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +9% | +12.88 | won |
New York Mets win in Texas Rangers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 | $10.00 | 2.27 | $12.70 | +2% | +12.70 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Colorado Rockies win in Colorado Rockies v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 | $10.00 | 2.66 | $16.59 | -3% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Chicago Cubs v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.73 | $10.00 | 2.73 | $17.33 | -1% | +17.33 | won |
San Francisco Giants win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.40 | $10.00 | 3.40 | $24.00 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Texas Rangers v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | +12% | +13.42 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in Houston Astros v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 | $10.00 | 2.21 | $12.10 | +14% | +12.10 | won |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Tampa Bay Rays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.31 | $10.00 | 2.31 | $13.10 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Tampa Bay Rays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
New York Mets win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +5% | +12.36 | won |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | -3% | -10.00 | lost |
Colorado Rockies win in Colorado Rockies v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 | $10.00 | 2.27 | $12.70 | +18% | +12.70 | won |
Miami Marlins win in San Diego Padres v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.73 | $10.00 | 2.73 | $17.33 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
Kansas City Royals win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Philadelphia Phillies win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +16% | +12.00 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in Chicago Cubs v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in St. Louis Cardinals v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.44 | $10.00 | 2.44 | $14.40 | -2% | +14.40 | won |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.65 | $10.00 | 2.65 | $16.50 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
Chicago White Sox win in Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.54 | $10.00 | 2.54 | $15.40 | +12% | -10.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in New York Mets v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 | $10.00 | 2.27 | $12.70 | -0% | +12.70 | won |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 | -1% | +15.88 | won |
San Francisco Giants win in St. Louis Cardinals v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.47 | $10.00 | 2.47 | $14.70 | +0% | +14.70 | won |
Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.55 | $10.00 | 2.55 | $15.50 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
Kansas City Royals win in Houston Astros v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.49 | $10.00 | 2.49 | $14.90 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Chicago Cubs v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.40 | -1% | +12.40 | won |
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | +9% | +13.42 | won |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 | +7% | +15.88 | won |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 | $10.00 | 2.66 | $16.59 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.73 | $10.00 | 2.73 | $17.33 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Chicago White Sox win in Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | -3% | +12.36 | won |
Baltimore Orioles win in Toronto Blue Jays v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.39 | $10.00 | 2.39 | $13.90 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | -2% | +13.99 | won |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +7% | +12.88 | won |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.40 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 | $10.00 | 2.89 | $18.95 | +20% | +18.95 | won |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 | -0% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | +12% | +13.99 | won |
Houston Astros win in Tampa Bay Rays v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.08 | $10.00 | 3.08 | $20.77 | +29% | -10.00 | lost |
Houston Astros win in Philadelphia Phillies v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 | $10.00 | 2.66 | $16.59 | -0% | +16.59 | won |
Texas Rangers win in Seattle Mariners v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Chicago White Sox v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +0% | +12.88 | won |
Cincinnati Reds win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 | $10.00 | 3.18 | $21.78 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | -2% | +14.59 | won |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Chicago White Sox v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.90 | +0% | +12.90 | won |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Milwaukee Brewers v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in San Diego Padres v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.73 | $10.00 | 2.73 | $17.30 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 | +2% | +15.88 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -0% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 | $10.00 | 2.27 | $12.70 | +4% | +12.70 | won |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Cleveland Guardians v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Seattle Mariners v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 | $10.00 | 3.18 | $21.80 | +8% | +21.80 | won |
Detroit Tigers win in Cleveland Guardians v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.36 | $10.00 | 2.36 | $13.60 | +2% | +13.60 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.40 | $10.00 | 3.40 | $24.00 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.40 | $10.00 | 3.40 | $24.00 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in New York Mets v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | +2% | +13.99 | won |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.