Baseball is the highest-variance major sport (rating->win only +0.12) yet the public loves favorites. Back MLB underdogs priced 2.2-3.5 when our Elo edge is at worst -3%.
baseball · Match winner (2-way) · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-03 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +3% | — | pending |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +7% | — | pending |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.40 | +3% | — | pending |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 | $10.00 | 2.89 | $18.95 | +20% | — | pending |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 |
| -10.00 |
| lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | +12% | — | pending |
Houston Astros win in Tampa Bay Rays v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.08 | $10.00 | 3.08 | $20.77 | +29% | -10.00 | lost |
Houston Astros win in Philadelphia Phillies v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 | $10.00 | 2.66 | $16.59 | -0% | +16.59 | won |
Texas Rangers win in Seattle Mariners v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Chicago White Sox v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +0% | +12.88 | won |
Cincinnati Reds win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 | $10.00 | 3.18 | $21.78 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | -2% | +14.59 | won |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Chicago White Sox v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.90 | +0% | +12.90 | won |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Milwaukee Brewers v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in San Diego Padres v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.73 | $10.00 | 2.73 | $17.30 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 | +2% | +15.88 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -0% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 | $10.00 | 2.27 | $12.70 | +4% | +12.70 | won |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Cleveland Guardians v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Seattle Mariners v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 | $10.00 | 3.18 | $21.80 | +8% | +21.80 | won |
Detroit Tigers win in Cleveland Guardians v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.36 | $10.00 | 2.36 | $13.60 | +2% | +13.60 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.40 | $10.00 | 3.40 | $24.00 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.40 | $10.00 | 3.40 | $24.00 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in New York Mets v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | +2% | +13.99 | won |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +12% | -10.00 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | -3% | -10.00 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Houston Astros v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 | $10.00 | 2.23 | $12.30 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in New York Mets v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in Pittsburgh Pirates v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | $10.00 | 2.40 | $14.00 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.40 | $10.00 | 3.40 | $24.00 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Chicago White Sox win in Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | -0% | -10.00 | lost |
Chicago White Sox win in Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 | $10.00 | 2.21 | $12.10 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 | $10.00 | 2.21 | $12.10 | +19% | -10.00 | lost |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 | $10.00 | 2.27 | $12.70 | +1% | +12.70 | won |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.36 | $10.00 | 2.36 | $13.60 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | +17% | -10.00 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.98 | $10.00 | 2.98 | $19.83 | -1% | +19.83 | won |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 | $10.00 | 2.23 | $12.30 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in Pittsburgh Pirates v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.42 | $10.00 | 2.42 | $14.20 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +1% | +12.00 | won |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +14% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +5% | +14.59 | won |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 | $10.00 | 2.27 | $12.70 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
New York Mets win in Tampa Bay Rays v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.54 | $10.00 | 2.54 | $15.40 | -2% | +15.40 | won |
Oakland Athletics win in Texas Rangers v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 | $10.00 | 2.89 | $18.95 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | -3% | -10.00 | lost |
Kansas City Royals win in Cleveland Guardians v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in Tampa Bay Rays v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
Houston Astros win in New York Mets v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 | $10.00 | 2.23 | $12.30 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 | $10.00 | 2.89 | $18.95 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | -3% | -10.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | +7% | +13.99 | won |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.35 | $10.00 | 2.35 | $13.50 | +16% | +13.50 | won |
Seattle Mariners win in Toronto Blue Jays v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in Tampa Bay Rays v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | +11% | -10.00 | lost |
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | -0% | -10.00 | lost |
New York Mets win in New York Mets v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +4% | +12.36 | won |
New York Mets win in New York Mets v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | +17% | +15.22 | won |
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 | $10.00 | 2.27 | $12.70 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.35 | $10.00 | 2.35 | $13.50 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +7% | +12.88 | won |
New York Mets win in New York Mets v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -2% | +12.88 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +11% | +12.88 | won |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.39 | $10.00 | 2.39 | $13.90 | +28% | +13.90 | won |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.90 | +16% | -10.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.28 | $10.00 | 2.28 | $12.80 | +21% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Miami Marlins v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | $10.00 | 2.40 | $14.00 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 | $10.00 | 3.18 | $21.78 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in Boston Red Sox v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.08 | $10.00 | 3.08 | $20.77 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
Colorado Rockies win in Colorado Rockies v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | -3% | -10.00 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.81 | $10.00 | 2.81 | $18.11 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Milwaukee Brewers v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.45 | $10.00 | 2.45 | $14.50 | -3% | -10.00 | lost |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 | $10.00 | 3.18 | $21.78 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Houston Astros v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.08 | $10.00 | 3.08 | $20.77 | -1% | +20.77 | won |
Washington Nationals win in Miami Marlins v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $10.00 | 2.46 | $14.59 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Colorado Rockies win in Colorado Rockies v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.38 | $10.00 | 2.38 | $13.80 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
New York Mets win in Chicago White Sox v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.40 | -0% | -10.00 | lost |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 | $10.00 | 3.18 | $21.78 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in New York Yankees v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 | $10.00 | 2.66 | $16.59 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Texas Rangers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.50 | $10.00 | 2.50 | $15.00 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in Cleveland Guardians v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 | +7% | +15.88 | won |
Washington Nationals win in Texas Rangers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.26 | $10.00 | 2.26 | $12.60 | -2% | +12.60 | won |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Cincinnati Reds v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.28 | $10.00 | 2.28 | $12.80 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.