Baseball is the highest-variance major sport (rating->win only +0.12) yet the public loves favorites. Back MLB underdogs priced 2.2-3.5 when our Elo edge is at worst -3%.
baseball · Match winner (2-way) · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-03 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
American All-Stars win in National All-Stars v American All-Stars · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +1% | +12.36 | won |
Boston Red Sox win in New York Mets v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +19% | +12.88 | won |
Seattle Mariners win in Tampa Bay Rays v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | +6% | +13.42 | won |
Los Angeles Angels win in Minnesota Twins v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | -0% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.88 | +15% | -10.00 | lost |
Cleveland Guardians win in Miami Marlins v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +1% | +12.36 | won |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Seattle Mariners v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.20 | $10.00 | 3.20 | $22.00 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Oakland Athletics v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +15% | +12.00 | won |
Colorado Rockies win in Colorado Rockies v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.40 | -2% | +13.40 | won |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Washington Nationals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.40 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.