← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 4, 08:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Shane Bieber (ERA 6, WHIP 2) · home: Logan Gilbert (ERA 3.42, WHIP 1.01)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Toronto Blue Jays win in Seattle Mariners v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | -2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 58% | 1.65 |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 42% | 2.29 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — | 11 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Seattle Mariners | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1519.04 | 1513.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.88 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.60 |