← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Jul 3, 10:45 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Washington Nationals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | Steam confusion | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.40 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Washington Nationals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.40 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Washington Nationals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.40 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 57% | 1.73 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 43% | 2.34 |
across 24 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 2.24 | 2.20 | -1.6% | |
| Washington Nationals win | 1.65 | 1.69 | +2.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| Washington Nationals | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | — | 9 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1477.19 | 1491.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.69 | 7.14 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.22 | 1.26 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 6.10 |