Market-structure play: when bookmakers DISAGREE hard on a price (cross-book spread > 8%), take the best available price on the side with any positive Elo edge — someone is wrong, take the generous one.
baseball · Match winner (2-way) · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-03 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 12.25 | $10.00 | 12.25 | $112.50 | +464% | — | pending |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 | $10.00 | 2.89 | $18.90 | +15% | +18.90 | won |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.60 | $10.00 | 3.60 | $26.00 | +17% | -10.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.05 | $10.00 | 3.05 | $20.50 | +1% | +20.50 | won |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.49 | $10.00 | 2.49 | $14.90 | +4% | +14.90 | won |
Oakland Athletics win in Texas Rangers v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.97 | $10.00 | 2.97 | $19.70 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.63 | $10.00 | 1.63 | $6.30 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.25 | $10.00 | 3.25 | $22.50 | +14% | -10.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in Philadelphia Phillies v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 | $10.00 | 2.21 | $12.10 | +1% | +12.10 | won |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.89 | $10.00 | 1.89 | $8.90 | +23% | +8.90 | won |
Oakland Athletics win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 5.40 | $10.00 | 5.40 | $44.00 | +88% | -10.00 | lost |
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.92 | $10.00 | 1.92 | $9.20 | +18% | -10.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Colorado Rockies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.99 | $10.00 | 1.99 | $9.90 | +13% | +9.90 | won |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.15 | $10.00 | 2.15 | $11.50 | +23% | -10.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.20 | $10.00 | 3.20 | $22.00 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.30 | +2% | +7.30 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Oakland Athletics v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +15% | +12.00 | won |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Washington Nationals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.40 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.95 | $10.00 | 1.95 | $9.50 | +25% | +9.50 | won |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.