Market-structure play: when bookmakers DISAGREE hard on a price (cross-book spread > 8%), take the best available price on the side with any positive Elo edge — someone is wrong, take the generous one.
baseball · Match winner (2-way) · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-03 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.15 | $10.00 | 2.15 | $11.50 | +23% | -10.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.20 | $10.00 | 3.20 | $22.00 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.30 | +2% | +7.30 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Oakland Athletics v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +15% | +12.00 | won |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Washington Nationals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.40 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.95 | $10.00 | 1.95 | $9.50 | +25% | +9.50 | won |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.