← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Jul 3, 11:15 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.95 won leg 2: Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.15 lost leg 3: Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.80 | $15.61 | +75% | -2.00 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.95 | Steam confusion | $10.00 | 1.95 | $9.50 | +25% | +9.50 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.95 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.95 | $9.50 | +25% | +9.50 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 51% | 1.95 |
| New York Mets win | 49% | 2.04 |
across 24 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 1.93 | 1.97 | +1.9% | |
| Atlanta Braves win | 1.86 | 1.87 | +0.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1532.42 | 1470.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.69 | 1.76 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.50 |