← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Jul 3, 11:10 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.95 won leg 2: Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.15 lost leg 3: Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.80 | $15.61 | +75% | -2.00 | lost |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 2.10 | $11.00 | +15% | -10.00 | lost |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.10 | $11.00 | +15% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 53% | 1.87 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 47% | 2.10 |
across 24 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 1.79 | 1.83 | +1.7% | |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 2.01 | 2.02 | +0.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cincinnati Reds | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1479.79 | 1480.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.97 | -11.67 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.21 | 2.27 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.60 |