← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 4, 02:10 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.95 won leg 2: Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.15 lost leg 3: Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.80 | $15.61 | +75% | -2.00 | lost |
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.15 | Steam confusion | $10.00 | 2.15 | $11.50 | +23% | -10.00 | lost |
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.15 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.15 | $11.50 | +23% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 54% | 1.86 |
| Seattle Mariners win | 46% | 2.15 |
across 23 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.76 | 1.79 | +1.5% | |
| Seattle Mariners win | 2.09 | 2.10 | +0.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Seattle Mariners | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1522.45 | 1510.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.11 | -5.59 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.02 | 2.29 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.80 |