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Drought fade

Law-derived (winless-run replicates in 4 sports): bet AGAINST any side whose opponent... no — whose own winless run is 4+ games, when priced under 2.8. Fade the drought.

The rule, in plain words

  • Probabilities come from: Elo rating (strength score updated after every match; converted to a win probability).
  • Bets any Match winner (2-way) selection where the model's probability × best available price beats 1.00 by more than 0% — i.e. the model thinks the outcome is meaningfully more likely than the price implies.
  • Extra condition: matches since win of the opponent must be at least 4.
  • Stakes: flat $10 per bet.

baseball · Match winner (2-way) · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-03 · same $1000 start as every other strategy

$953.58
balance (started at $1000)
-46.42
-5.5% return on money staked
42/84
bets won / settled
3 bets still pending

Every bet this strategy madelatest 87

BetStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62
$10.001.62$6.21+13%—pending
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.61
$10.001.61$6.10+12%—pending
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57
$10.001.57$5.71+2%+5.71won
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55
$10.001.55$5.47+0%+5.47won
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.53
$10.001.53$5.30+1%-10.00lost
Baltimore Orioles win in Colorado Rockies v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62
$10.001.62$6.21+2%-10.00lost
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60
$10.001.60$5.96+5%-10.00lost
New York Yankees win in Los Angeles Angels v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62
$10.001.62$6.21+6%+6.21won
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70
$10.001.70$7.03+11%-10.00lost
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.85
$10.001.85$8.50+21%-10.00lost
New York Yankees win in Los Angeles Angels v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57
$10.001.57$5.71+1%+5.71won
Detroit Tigers win in Minnesota Twins v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97
$10.001.97$9.70+2%-10.00lost
Detroit Tigers win in Minnesota Twins v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.17
$10.002.17$11.70+12%-10.00lost
Oakland Athletics win in Texas Rangers v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.97
$10.002.97$19.70+7%-10.00lost
New York Yankees win in Los Angeles Angels v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65
$10.001.65$6.48+4%-10.00lost
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86
$10.001.86$8.61+23%+8.61won
Tampa Bay Rays win in Detroit Tigers v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09
$10.002.09$10.90+2%+10.90won
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67
$10.001.67$6.75+10%-10.00lost
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73
$10.001.73$7.32+13%-10.00lost
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57
$10.001.57$5.71+3%+5.71won
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62
$10.001.62$6.21+9%-10.00lost
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73
$10.001.73$7.32+3%+7.32won
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23
$10.002.23$12.30+3%+12.30won
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05
$10.002.05$10.51+8%-10.00lost
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70
$10.001.70$7.03+0%-10.00lost
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.30
$10.002.30$13.00+3%+13.00won
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79
$10.001.79$7.94+5%+7.94won
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.45
$10.002.45$14.50+18%-10.00lost
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70
$10.001.70$7.03+8%-10.00lost
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.85
$10.001.85$8.50+17%+8.50won
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57
$10.001.57$5.71+15%+5.71won
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62
$10.001.62$6.20+12%+6.20won
New York Mets win in Pittsburgh Pirates v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.25
$10.002.25$12.50+0%+12.50won
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19
$10.002.19$11.87+2%+11.87won
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.46
$10.001.46$4.59+8%-10.00lost
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34
$10.002.34$13.42+9%-10.00lost
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62
$10.001.62$6.21+13%+6.21won
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.46
$10.001.46$4.59+8%-10.00lost
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62
$10.001.62$6.20+13%-10.00lost
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59
$10.002.59$15.88+21%+15.88won
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.36
$10.001.36$3.62+0%+3.62won
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.64
$10.001.64$6.40+4%+6.40won
San Francisco Giants win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46
$10.002.46$14.59+10%-10.00lost
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65
$10.001.65$6.48+7%-10.00lost
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70
$10.001.70$7.03+6%+7.03won
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62
$10.001.62$6.21+9%+6.21won
San Francisco Giants win in Texas Rangers v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.71
$10.002.71$17.10+18%-10.00lost
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70
$10.001.70$7.03+6%+7.03won
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67
$10.001.67$6.75+13%+6.75won
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70
$10.001.70$7.00+9%+7.00won
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62
$10.001.62$6.21+7%-10.00lost
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.22
$10.002.22$12.20+15%-10.00lost
Kansas City Royals win in Colorado Rockies v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93
$10.001.93$9.32+7%-10.00lost
Kansas City Royals win in Colorado Rockies v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05
$10.002.05$10.50+14%-10.00lost
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05
$10.002.05$10.51+2%-10.00lost
Philadelphia Phillies win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00
$10.002.00$10.00+7%-10.00lost
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05
$10.002.05$10.51+2%+10.51won
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.48
$10.001.48$4.80+1%-10.00lost
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20
$10.002.20$12.00+19%+12.00won
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52
$10.002.52$15.20+20%+15.20won
San Diego Padres win in Miami Marlins v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.15
$10.002.15$11.50+2%+11.50won
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76
$10.001.76$7.63+11%-10.00lost
San Diego Padres win in Miami Marlins v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19
$10.002.19$11.87+1%+11.87won
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.82
$10.001.82$8.20+15%+8.20won
San Diego Padres win in Miami Marlins v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29
$10.002.29$12.88+6%+12.88won
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77
$10.001.77$7.70+13%-10.00lost
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.87
$10.001.87$8.70+1%+8.70won
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Angels v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90
$10.001.90$8.96+8%+8.96won
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90
$10.001.90$8.96+2%-10.00lost
Miami Marlins win in Houston Astros v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.16
$10.002.16$11.60+2%-10.00lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Angels v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83
$10.001.83$8.27+4%-10.00lost
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93
$10.001.93$9.32+4%-10.00lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Angels v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.07
$10.002.07$10.70+18%-10.00lost
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67
$10.001.67$6.75+7%-10.00lost
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79
$10.001.79$7.90+18%+7.90won
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97
$10.001.97$9.70+3%+9.70won
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97
$10.001.97$9.70+3%-10.00lost
San Diego Padres win in Kansas City Royals v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97
$10.001.97$9.70+4%+9.70won
Washington Nationals win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.12
$10.002.12$11.20+1%-10.00lost
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93
$10.001.93$9.32+1%-10.00lost
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.89
$10.001.89$8.90+13%+8.90won
Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67
$10.001.67$6.75+1%+6.75won
Miami Marlins win in Oakland Athletics v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97
$10.001.97$9.70+3%—pending
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97
$10.001.97$9.70+8%+9.70won
Miami Marlins win in Oakland Athletics v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93
$10.001.93$9.32+1%+9.32won
Miami Marlins win in Oakland Athletics v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20
$10.002.20$12.00+15%+12.00won
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10
$10.002.10$11.00+15%-10.00lost

"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.