Law-derived (winless-run replicates in 4 sports): bet AGAINST any side whose opponent... no — whose own winless run is 4+ games, when priced under 2.8. Fade the drought.
baseball · Match winner (2-way) · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-03 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.89 | $10.00 | 1.89 | $8.90 | +13% | +8.90 | won |
Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | $10.00 | 1.67 | $6.75 | +1% | +6.75 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Oakland Athletics v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | $10.00 | 1.97 | $9.70 | +3% | — | pending |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | $10.00 | 1.97 | $9.70 | +8% | +9.70 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Oakland Athletics v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +1% | +9.32 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Oakland Athletics v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +15% | +12.00 | won |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 | $10.00 | 2.10 | $11.00 | +15% | -10.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.