← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 12, 06:10 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +5% | +7.32 | won |
Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.67 | $6.75 | +1% | +6.75 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 56% | 1.91 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 44% | 4.51 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels win | 2.24 | 2.14 | -4.3% | |
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.67 | 1.74 | +3.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Minnesota Twins | Los Angeles Angels |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1467.26 | 1428.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.94 | -8.47 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.00 |