← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 4, 01:40 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami Marlins win in Oakland Athletics v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | Steam confusion | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +15% | +12.00 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Oakland Athletics v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +15% | +12.00 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Oakland Athletics v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +15% | +12.00 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Oakland Athletics v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +15% | +12.00 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics win | 54% | 1.82 |
| Miami Marlins win | 46% | 2.20 |
across 24 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 2.09 | 2.10 | +0.3% | |
| Oakland Athletics win | 1.76 | 1.77 | +0.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1465.84 | 1503.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.13 | -6.42 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 2.00 | 1.27 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.40 |