← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 5, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Sandy Alcantara (ERA 4.2, WHIP 1.28) · home: Aaron Civale (ERA 4.92, WHIP 1.57)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami Marlins win in Oakland Athletics v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +1% | +9.32 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 50% | 1.93 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1461.37 | 1507.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.09 | -0.02 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.30 |