Chicago White Sox 9–1 Oakland Athletics

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 12, 06:10 PM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.89	Portfolio	$14.17	1.89	$12.61	+5%	+12.61	won
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 lost leg 2: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.89 won leg 3: Atlanta Braves win in St. Louis Cardinals v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.18 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	8.65	$15.30	+51%	-2.00	lost
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.89	Drought fade	$10.00	1.89	$8.90	+13%	+8.90	won
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.83	$8.27	+7%	+8.27	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Chicago White Sox win	57%	1.89
Oakland Athletics win	43%	11.74

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Oakland Athletics win		2.05	2.01	-2.0%
Chicago White Sox win		1.83	1.83	0.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Oakland Athletics	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Chicago White Sox	6	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	—	9

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Chicago White Sox	Oakland Athletics
congestion 21d	15.00	15.00
elo	1486.51	1448.14
elo momentum (last 5)	6.61	-17.69
matches since win	0.00	5.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	3.00	6.60
runs for avg (last 10)	4.90	2.60