← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 12, 06:15 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 lost leg 2: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.89 won leg 3: Atlanta Braves win in St. Louis Cardinals v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.18 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.65 | $15.30 | +51% | -2.00 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in St. Louis Cardinals v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.18 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.18 | $11.80 | +9% | +11.80 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 54% | 4.73 |
| Atlanta Braves win | 46% | 2.60 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 2.09 | 2.09 | 0.0% | |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 1.79 | 1.75 | -2.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Louis Cardinals | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1506.08 | 1534.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.05 | -0.25 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.50 |