← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 12, 04:15 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 | Portfolio | $21.03 | 2.10 | $23.13 | +10% | -21.03 | lost |
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 lost leg 2: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.89 won leg 3: Atlanta Braves win in St. Louis Cardinals v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.18 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.65 | $15.30 | +51% | -2.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.10 | $11.00 | +22% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 52% | 2.09 |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 48% | 2.10 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.73 | 2.05 | +18.4% | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 2.01 | 1.80 | -10.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 14 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1497.88 | 1586.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.79 | -0.95 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.70 |