Layer 3, the bet-maker: builds the best BASKET across everything priced (ballast/value/longshot buckets, one bet per contest, quarter-Kelly, model blended 50/50 with the market) and Monte Carlos each slate before betting. Historical replay verdict: with the current football model's edge it would have gone bust over 21 seasons ($1000 -> $0.76) — this forward trial tests whether the newer, humbler probabilities change that.
any · any · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-04 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Jose Earthquakes win in Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.40 | $2.71 | 4.40 | $9.21 | +7% | — | pending |
FC Dallas win in FC Dallas v Colorado Rapids · Match result @ 2.10 | $6.52 | 2.10 | $7.17 | +5% | — | pending |
Draw in Philadelphia Union v Toronto FC · Match result @ 5.20 | $2.70 | 5.20 | $11.34 | +8% | — | pending |
Houston Dynamo win in Portland Timbers v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 4.08 | $3.13 | 4.08 | $9.64 | +7% | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in Nashville SC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 6.00 | $2.57 | 6.00 | $12.85 | +9% |
| pending |
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 2.50 | $5.85 | 2.50 | $8.77 | +6% | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in Sporting Kansas City v FC Dallas · Match result @ 3.95 | $3.09 | 3.95 | $9.12 | +6% | — | pending |
CF Montreal win in New York City FC v CF Montreal · Match result @ 7.00 | $1.68 | 7.00 | $10.08 | +7% | — | pending |
Draw in Minnesota United FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 5.50 | $1.19 | 5.50 | $5.35 | +4% | — | pending |
San Jose Earthquakes win in San Jose Earthquakes v Colorado Rapids · Match result @ 2.23 | $6.77 | 2.23 | $8.33 | +6% | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in Minnesota United FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.75 | $1.00 | 6.75 | $5.75 | +2% | — | pending |
Orlando City SC win in Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 4.60 | $5.20 | 4.60 | $18.72 | +13% | — | pending |
Under in Houston Dynamo v Minnesota United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 | $8.10 | 2.25 | $10.13 | +7% | — | pending |
New England Revolution win in Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution · Match result @ 5.75 | $3.03 | 5.75 | $14.39 | +10% | — | pending |
CF Montreal win in CF Montreal v Nashville SC · Match result @ 5.10 | $3.03 | 5.10 | $12.42 | +19% | — | pending |
Portland Timbers win in Portland Timbers v Colorado Rapids · Match result @ 2.20 | $7.07 | 2.20 | $8.48 | +6% | — | pending |
San Jose Earthquakes win in San Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC · Match result @ 3.65 | $10.36 | 3.65 | $27.45 | +18% | — | pending |
Orlando City SC win in Toronto FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 3.05 | $4.27 | 3.05 | $8.75 | +6% | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 10.50 | $2.69 | 10.50 | $25.55 | +16% | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in DC United v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 3.80 | $11.34 | 3.80 | $31.75 | +20% | — | pending |
FC Cincinnati win in Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 2.75 | $5.41 | 2.75 | $9.47 | +6% | — | pending |
San Jose Earthquakes win in Colorado Rapids v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 3.70 | $4.77 | 3.70 | $12.88 | +8% | — | pending |
Portland Timbers win in Sporting Kansas City v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 2.80 | $10.75 | 2.80 | $19.35 | +11% | — | pending |
New York City FC win in Chicago Fire v New York City FC · Match result @ 4.20 | $8.98 | 4.20 | $28.74 | +17% | — | pending |
Real Salt Lake win in Philadelphia Union v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 6.75 | $3.38 | 6.75 | $19.43 | +35% | — | pending |
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in Milwaukee Brewers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.80 lost leg 2: Diamondbacks/Phillies win in Milwaukee Brewers v Diamondbacks/Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.80 lost | $7.63 | 2.80 | $13.73 | -58% | -7.63 | lost |
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.72 lost leg 2: Diamondbacks/Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Diamondbacks/Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.72 lost | $9.81 | 2.72 | $16.87 | -56% | -9.81 | lost |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.51 | $8.79 | 1.51 | $4.48 | +3% | +4.48 | won |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 | $10.64 | 1.77 | $8.19 | +6% | — | pending |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | $9.23 | 2.14 | $10.52 | +7% | -9.23 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.40 | $6.52 | 3.40 | $15.65 | +11% | -6.52 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $17.72 | 2.46 | $25.86 | +21% | +25.86 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.56 | $9.50 | 1.56 | $5.32 | +4% | +5.32 | won |
Los Angeles FC win in FC Dallas v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 2.93 | $6.74 | 2.93 | $13.01 | +9% | — | pending |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.58 | $11.56 | 1.58 | $6.70 | +4% | +6.70 | won |
Sporting Kansas City win in Houston Dynamo v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.40 | $1.52 | 6.40 | $8.21 | +5% | — | pending |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.78 | $13.97 | 1.78 | $10.90 | +7% | +10.90 | won |
Draw in Nashville SC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 5.05 | $3.25 | 5.05 | $13.16 | +8% | — | pending |
Real Salt Lake win in Real Salt Lake v New England Revolution · Match result @ 2.38 | $10.00 | 2.38 | $13.80 | +8% | — | pending |
New York City FC win in Atlanta United FC v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.01 | $7.58 | 3.01 | $15.24 | +9% | — | pending |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.66 | $8.68 | 3.66 | $23.06 | +14% | -8.68 | lost |
Orlando City SC win in Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 6.50 | $3.33 | 6.50 | $18.32 | +26% | — | pending |
Seattle Mariners win in Seattle Mariners v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | $6.79 | 1.76 | $5.18 | +3% | -6.79 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | $7.58 | 2.14 | $8.64 | +5% | +8.64 | won |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 | $15.38 | 1.60 | $9.16 | +5% | +9.16 | won |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.66 | $9.88 | 3.66 | $26.25 | +16% | -9.88 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.80 | $6.45 | 1.80 | $5.16 | +3% | +5.16 | won |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.87 | $7.47 | 1.87 | $6.50 | +4% | -7.47 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 | $4.65 | 2.89 | $8.79 | +5% | +8.79 | won |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.16 | $8.65 | 2.16 | $10.03 | +6% | +10.03 | won |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.81 | $7.73 | 1.81 | $6.26 | +3% | -7.73 | lost |
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | $8.45 | 1.83 | $7.01 | +4% | +7.01 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Philadelphia Phillies v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | $8.21 | 2.20 | $9.85 | +5% | -8.21 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 | $10.73 | 2.09 | $11.75 | +6% | -10.73 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | $13.93 | 2.14 | $15.88 | +9% | -13.93 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 | $10.73 | 2.00 | $10.73 | +6% | +10.73 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in Houston Astros v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 | $8.32 | 2.21 | $10.07 | +6% | +10.07 | won |
New York Mets win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.51 | $8.69 | 2.51 | $13.12 | +7% | -8.69 | lost |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.98 | $14.34 | 1.98 | $14.05 | +8% | +14.05 | won |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.80 | $7.98 | 2.80 | $14.36 | +8% | -7.98 | lost |
Philadelphia Phillies win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 | $9.95 | 2.10 | $10.95 | +6% | -9.95 | lost |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | $14.18 | 1.93 | $13.19 | +7% | +13.19 | won |
FC Cincinnati win in Houston Dynamo v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 3.77 | $5.88 | 3.77 | $16.29 | +9% | — | pending |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.27 | $11.99 | 2.27 | $15.23 | +8% | +15.23 | won |
Orlando City SC win in New England Revolution v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 3.80 | $5.62 | 3.80 | $15.74 | +9% | — | pending |
Portland Timbers win in Portland Timbers v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 2.15 | $13.92 | 2.15 | $16.01 | +9% | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in Sporting Kansas City v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 4.80 | $7.03 | 4.80 | $26.71 | +15% | — | pending |
Philadelphia Phillies win in New York Mets v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | $10.03 | 2.20 | $12.04 | +7% | +12.04 | won |
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | $12.47 | 1.97 | $12.10 | +7% | -12.47 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.61 | $10.30 | 1.61 | $6.28 | +4% | +6.28 | won |
Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.56 | $14.95 | 1.56 | $8.37 | +5% | +8.37 | won |
Chicago White Sox win in Cleveland Guardians v Chicago White Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.54 | $5.93 | 2.54 | $9.13 | +5% | -5.93 | lost |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.01 | $5.64 | 3.01 | $11.34 | +6% | -5.64 | lost |
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.47 | $7.81 | 2.47 | $11.48 | +7% | +11.48 | won |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 | $7.83 | 2.89 | $14.80 | +8% | +14.80 | won |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.15 | $12.37 | 3.15 | $26.60 | +15% | -12.37 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | $13.05 | 1.73 | $9.56 | +5% | -13.05 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | $6.78 | 1.86 | $5.83 | +3% | +5.83 | won |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.69 | $20.21 | 1.69 | $13.94 | +8% | +13.94 | won |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.96 | $9.99 | 1.96 | $9.59 | +6% | +9.59 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | $15.45 | 1.67 | $10.43 | +7% | -15.45 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | $8.07 | 2.52 | $12.27 | +8% | -8.07 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | $9.35 | 1.86 | $8.05 | +5% | +8.05 | won |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | $10.92 | 1.76 | $8.30 | +5% | +8.30 | won |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | $13.91 | 1.70 | $9.78 | +6% | +9.78 | won |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.50 | $7.89 | 2.50 | $11.83 | +7% | +11.83 | won |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.64 | $12.59 | 2.64 | $20.65 | +13% | -12.59 | lost |
New York City FC win in Real Salt Lake v New York City FC · Match result @ 4.10 | $7.32 | 4.10 | $22.69 | +14% | — | pending |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | $7.39 | 1.76 | $5.64 | +3% | +5.64 | won |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | $9.67 | 1.62 | $6.01 | +4% | +6.01 | won |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 | $9.15 | 1.90 | $8.20 | +5% | +8.20 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.81 | $5.89 | 2.81 | $10.67 | +6% | -5.89 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.50 | $13.14 | 1.50 | $6.57 | +4% | -13.14 | lost |
Orlando City SC win in Atlanta United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 3.10 | $4.72 | 3.10 | $9.91 | +6% | — | pending |
Draw in Los Angeles FC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 5.30 | $1.00 | 5.30 | $4.30 | +1% | — | pending |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.48 | $16.79 | 1.48 | $8.06 | +5% | +8.06 | won |
Under in Toronto FC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.16 | $11.95 | 2.16 | $13.86 | +8% | — | pending |
Chicago Cubs win in Milwaukee Brewers v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 | $7.82 | 2.89 | $14.78 | +8% | -7.82 | lost |
FC Cincinnati win in Philadelphia Union v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.50 | $4.91 | 4.50 | $17.19 | +10% | — | pending |
Real Salt Lake win in Houston Dynamo v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 4.50 | $6.99 | 4.50 | $24.46 | +14% | — | pending |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.