Layer 3, the bet-maker: builds the best BASKET across everything priced (ballast/value/longshot buckets, one bet per contest, quarter-Kelly, model blended 50/50 with the market) and Monte Carlos each slate before betting. Historical replay verdict: with the current football model's edge it would have gone bust over 21 seasons ($1000 -> $0.76) — this forward trial tests whether the newer, humbler probabilities change that.
any · any · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-04 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Under in France v Spain · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.98 | $29.77 | 1.98 | $29.17 | +13% | +29.17 | won |
Over in England v Argentina · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.46 | $26.62 | 2.46 | $38.87 | +19% | — | pending |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.69 | $15.48 | 1.69 | $10.68 | +5% | +10.68 | won |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.89 | $14.17 | 1.89 | $12.61 | +5% | +12.61 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.10 | $21.03 | 2.10 | $23.13 | +10% | -21.03 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | $11.09 | 1.67 | $7.48 | +3% | +7.48 | won |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | $8.83 | 2.59 | $14.03 | +6% | -8.83 | lost |
Draw in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 4.10 | $11.33 | 4.10 | $35.12 | +14% | -11.33 | lost |
Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 5.90 | $4.93 | 5.90 | $24.17 | +16% | -4.93 | lost |
Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 | $29.56 | 4.34 | $98.73 | +47% | -29.56 | lost |
Under in Portugal v Spain · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 | $42.36 | 2.10 | $46.60 | +21% | +46.60 | won |
United States win in United States v Belgium · Match result @ 2.78 | $27.03 | 2.78 | $48.11 | +23% | -27.03 | lost |
Egypt win in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 10.00 | $4.50 | 10.00 | $40.50 | +48% | -4.50 | lost |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | $20.53 | 1.73 | $15.04 | +6% | -20.53 | lost |
Over in Brazil v Norway · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.80 | $38.50 | 1.80 | $30.80 | +12% | +30.80 | won |
Mexico win in Mexico v England · Match result @ 3.30 | $30.00 | 3.30 | $69.00 | +44% | -30.00 | lost |
Canada win in Canada v Morocco · Match result @ 5.70 | $5.00 | 5.70 | $23.50 | +96% | -5.00 | lost |
Paraguay win in Paraguay v France · Match result @ 25.12 | $5.00 | 25.12 | $120.60 | +275% | -5.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.