Layer 3, the bet-maker: builds the best BASKET across everything priced (ballast/value/longshot buckets, one bet per contest, quarter-Kelly, model blended 50/50 with the market) and Monte Carlos each slate before betting. Historical replay verdict: with the current football model's edge it would have gone bust over 21 seasons ($1000 -> $0.76) — this forward trial tests whether the newer, humbler probabilities change that.
any · any · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-04 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.96 | $9.99 | 1.96 | $9.59 | +6% | — | pending |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | $15.45 | 1.67 | $10.43 | +7% | — | pending |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | $8.07 | 2.52 | $12.27 | +8% | — | pending |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | $9.35 | 1.86 | $8.05 | +5% | — | pending |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | $10.92 | 1.76 | $8.30 |
| +8.30 |
| won |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | $13.91 | 1.70 | $9.78 | +6% | — | pending |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.50 | $7.89 | 2.50 | $11.83 | +7% | +11.83 | won |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Atlanta Braves v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.64 | $12.59 | 2.64 | $20.65 | +13% | -12.59 | lost |
New York City FC win in Real Salt Lake v New York City FC · Match result @ 4.10 | $7.32 | 4.10 | $22.69 | +14% | — | pending |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | $7.39 | 1.76 | $5.64 | +3% | +5.64 | won |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | $9.67 | 1.62 | $6.01 | +4% | +6.01 | won |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.90 | $9.15 | 1.90 | $8.20 | +5% | +8.20 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.81 | $5.89 | 2.81 | $10.67 | +6% | -5.89 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.50 | $13.14 | 1.50 | $6.57 | +4% | -13.14 | lost |
Orlando City SC win in Atlanta United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 3.10 | $4.72 | 3.10 | $9.91 | +6% | — | pending |
Draw in Los Angeles FC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 5.30 | $1.00 | 5.30 | $4.30 | +1% | — | pending |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.48 | $16.79 | 1.48 | $8.06 | +5% | +8.06 | won |
Under in Toronto FC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.16 | $11.95 | 2.16 | $13.86 | +8% | — | pending |
Chicago Cubs win in Milwaukee Brewers v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 | $7.82 | 2.89 | $14.78 | +8% | -7.82 | lost |
FC Cincinnati win in Philadelphia Union v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.50 | $4.91 | 4.50 | $17.19 | +10% | — | pending |
Real Salt Lake win in Houston Dynamo v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 4.50 | $6.99 | 4.50 | $24.46 | +14% | — | pending |
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.68 | $16.75 | 1.68 | $11.39 | +7% | +11.39 | won |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.89 | $6.45 | 2.89 | $12.19 | +7% | +12.19 | won |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | $18.99 | 1.65 | $12.30 | +7% | -18.99 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 | $11.65 | 1.55 | $6.37 | +4% | +6.37 | won |
Sporting Kansas City win in FC Dallas v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.75 | $1.00 | 6.75 | $5.75 | +0% | — | pending |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Colorado Rockies v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | $8.06 | 1.83 | $6.69 | +4% | -8.06 | lost |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | $6.75 | 1.83 | $5.58 | +3% | -6.75 | lost |
Draw in Philadelphia Union v CF Montreal · Match result @ 5.18 | $1.35 | 5.18 | $5.64 | +3% | — | pending |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | $10.49 | 1.86 | $9.02 | +5% | +9.02 | won |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | $11.17 | 1.93 | $10.39 | +6% | -11.17 | lost |
Under in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 | $9.40 | 2.10 | $10.34 | +6% | — | pending |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.60 | $5.48 | 3.60 | $14.25 | +8% | -5.48 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 | $17.65 | 1.77 | $13.59 | +7% | -17.65 | lost |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 | $14.58 | 2.21 | $17.64 | +9% | -14.58 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.37 | $14.96 | 2.37 | $20.50 | +10% | -14.96 | lost |
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | $10.87 | 1.62 | $6.74 | +3% | -10.87 | lost |
Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.81 | $13.52 | 1.81 | $10.95 | +5% | +10.95 | won |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.23 | $9.22 | 2.23 | $11.34 | +6% | -9.22 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | $9.59 | 1.70 | $6.74 | +3% | -9.59 | lost |
New York Yankees win in Los Angeles Angels v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | $13.06 | 1.73 | $9.53 | +5% | -13.06 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | $15.03 | 1.65 | $9.77 | +5% | -15.03 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Cleveland Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 | $7.92 | 2.46 | $11.56 | +5% | -7.92 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.47 | $21.71 | 1.47 | $10.20 | +5% | +10.20 | won |
San Diego Padres win in Tampa Bay Rays v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.50 | $7.34 | 2.50 | $11.01 | +5% | -7.34 | lost |
Kansas City Royals win in Cleveland Guardians v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.72 | $6.45 | 2.72 | $11.09 | +5% | -6.45 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | $19.40 | 1.62 | $12.03 | +6% | -19.40 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 | $12.76 | 2.05 | $13.40 | +6% | -12.76 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.18 | $22.57 | 2.18 | $26.63 | +12% | +26.63 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.49 | $22.63 | 1.49 | $11.09 | +5% | +11.09 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.63 | $18.15 | 1.63 | $11.43 | +6% | +11.43 | won |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.60 | $8.08 | 2.60 | $12.93 | +6% | +12.93 | won |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | $18.51 | 1.73 | $13.56 | +7% | -18.51 | lost |
Real Salt Lake win in Colorado Rapids v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 3.80 | $8.18 | 3.80 | $22.90 | +11% | — | pending |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Los Angeles Angels v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.75 | $9.54 | 1.75 | $7.15 | +3% | +7.15 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.46 | $17.10 | 1.46 | $7.87 | +4% | +7.87 | won |
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 3.05 | $7.78 | 3.05 | $15.95 | +7% | — | pending |
Under in Toronto FC v New York City FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.18 | $14.59 | 2.18 | $17.22 | +8% | — | pending |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.84 | $14.28 | 2.84 | $26.28 | +12% | -14.28 | lost |
San Jose Earthquakes win in Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.75 | $9.44 | 4.75 | $35.40 | +16% | — | pending |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | $19.58 | 1.97 | $19.00 | +9% | -19.58 | lost |
New York Mets win in New York Mets v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.90 | $13.61 | 2.90 | $25.86 | +12% | -13.61 | lost |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.77 | $16.81 | 1.77 | $12.94 | +6% | +12.94 | won |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | $22.79 | 1.86 | $19.61 | +9% | +19.61 | won |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | $25.86 | 1.83 | $21.46 | +10% | -25.86 | lost |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Seattle Mariners v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 | $11.25 | 2.05 | $11.81 | +5% | -11.25 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.18 | $10.97 | 2.18 | $12.94 | +6% | +12.94 | won |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.89 | $16.69 | 1.89 | $14.85 | +7% | -16.69 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.36 | $11.15 | 2.36 | $15.16 | +7% | +15.16 | won |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.07 | $19.50 | 2.07 | $20.86 | +9% | +20.86 | won |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | $16.96 | 1.76 | $12.94 | +5% | -16.96 | lost |
Los Angeles Angels win in Los Angeles Angels v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.48 | $8.96 | 2.48 | $13.26 | +6% | -8.96 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | $18.23 | 1.86 | $15.69 | +7% | -18.23 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | $12.36 | 2.29 | $15.94 | +7% | -12.36 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 | $25.01 | 2.00 | $25.01 | +11% | -25.01 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.81 | $12.67 | 1.81 | $10.26 | +4% | -12.67 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.74 | $13.89 | 1.74 | $10.28 | +4% | +10.28 | won |
Detroit Tigers win in Detroit Tigers v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | $10.57 | 2.14 | $12.05 | +5% | -10.57 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 | $11.73 | 2.09 | $12.84 | +6% | +12.84 | won |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.50 | $6.54 | 3.50 | $16.35 | +7% | -6.54 | lost |
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | $12.90 | 1.62 | $8.01 | +3% | -12.90 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | $11.15 | 1.76 | $8.50 | +3% | +8.50 | won |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 | $16.78 | 2.09 | $18.37 | +8% | +18.37 | won |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | $20.26 | 1.93 | $18.84 | +8% | -20.26 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in New York Yankees v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.95 | $7.70 | 2.95 | $15.02 | +6% | -7.70 | lost |
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.88 | $16.54 | 2.88 | $31.10 | +13% | — | pending |
Texas Rangers win in Texas Rangers v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | $14.38 | 1.76 | $10.97 | +5% | +10.97 | won |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | $16.63 | 1.83 | $13.80 | +6% | +13.80 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | $19.34 | 1.76 | $14.75 | +6% | +14.75 | won |
Los Angeles FC win in Colorado Rapids v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 2.55 | $16.40 | 2.55 | $25.42 | +10% | — | pending |
New England Revolution win in DC United v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.40 | $11.24 | 3.40 | $26.98 | +11% | — | pending |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.68 | $18.71 | 1.68 | $12.72 | +5% | +12.72 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | $20.62 | 1.76 | $15.73 | +6% | -20.62 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.10 | $11.20 | 3.10 | $23.52 | +9% | -11.20 | lost |
FC Dallas win in Real Salt Lake v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00 | $8.23 | 4.00 | $24.69 | +10% | — | pending |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.08 | $14.67 | 3.08 | $30.47 | +12% | -14.67 | lost |
Orlando City SC win in Orlando City SC v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.87 | $21.65 | 2.87 | $40.49 | +16% | — | pending |
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Colorado Rockies v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | $23.89 | 1.67 | $16.12 | +6% | +16.12 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.13 | $11.87 | 3.13 | $25.28 | +10% | -11.87 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | $14.45 | 1.67 | $9.68 | +4% | -14.45 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.