← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Sep 27, 12:30 AM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in Nashville SC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 5.05 | Dutch cover | $1.98 | 5.05 | $8.02 | — | — | pending |
Toronto FC win in Nashville SC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 6.75 | Dutch cover | $18.02 | 6.75 | $103.61 | +9% | — | pending |
Draw in Nashville SC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 5.05 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 5.05 | $20.25 | +19% | — | pending |
Draw in Nashville SC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 5.05 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 5.05 | $20.25 | +19% | — | pending |
Toronto FC win in Nashville SC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 6.75 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 6.75 | $28.75 | +9% | — | pending |
Draw in Nashville SC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 5.05 | Portfolio | $3.25 | 5.05 | $13.16 | +8% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC win | 65% | 60% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 5.30 | value: +25% |
| Toronto FC win | 16% | 16% | 7.00 | value: +13% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC win | 7.00 | 6.35 | -9.3% | |
| Draw | 5.15 | 4.80 | -6.8% | |
| Nashville SC win | 1.34 | 1.45 | +8.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | Geodis Park |