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Mls sim value

MLS forward trial: back any 1x2 selection where the fixtures sim beats the best price by 10%. Higher bar than WC — the sim is new to this league and MLS draws are notoriously frequent.

The rule, in plain words

  • Probabilities come from: Poisson/Dixon-Coles fixtures simulation (expected goals for each side, played out over every scoreline).
  • Bets any Match result selection where the model's probability × best available price beats 1.00 by more than 10% — i.e. the model thinks the outcome is meaningfully more likely than the price implies.
  • Stakes: flat $5 per bet.

football · Match result · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-07 · same $1000 start as every other strategy

$1011.65
balance (started at $1000)
+11.65
8.0% return on money staked
9/29
bets won / settled
27 bets still pending

Every bet this strategy madelatest 59

BetStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
San Jose Earthquakes win in San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 2.42
$5.002.42$7.10+12%—pending
New York City FC win in Real Salt Lake v New York City FC · Match result @ 4.10
$5.004.10$15.50+30%—pending
FC Dallas win in Minnesota United FC v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00
$5.004.00$15.00+17%—pending
Real Salt Lake win in Houston Dynamo v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 4.50
$5.004.50$17.50+32%—pending
Orlando City SC win in Atlanta United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 3.20
$5.003.20$11.00+18%—pending
FC Cincinnati win in Philadelphia Union v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.50
$5.004.50$17.50+22%—pending
Draw in Philadelphia Union v CF Montreal · Match result @ 5.33
$5.005.33$21.65+12%—pending
Los Angeles FC win in Real Salt Lake v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 2.60
$5.002.60$8.00+11%—pending
New York City FC win in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Match result @ 2.65
$5.002.65$8.25+10%—pending
New York City FC win in Toronto FC v New York City FC · Match result @ 2.77
$5.002.77$8.85+13%—pending
Real Salt Lake win in Colorado Rapids v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 3.40
$5.003.40$12.00+12%—pending
San Jose Earthquakes win in Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.75
$5.004.75$18.75+35%—pending
Los Angeles FC win in DC United v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 2.05
$5.002.05$5.25+16%—pending
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 3.05
$5.003.05$10.25+18%—pending
New York City FC win in New England Revolution v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.08
$5.003.08$10.40+11%—pending
Sporting Kansas City win in Atlanta United FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 4.60
$5.004.60$18.00+11%—pending
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.88
$5.002.88$9.40+27%—pending
Los Angeles FC win in Colorado Rapids v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 2.50
$5.002.50$7.50+20%—pending
FC Dallas win in Real Salt Lake v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00
$5.004.00$15.00+22%—pending
New England Revolution win in DC United v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.25
$5.003.25$11.25+18%—pending
Orlando City SC win in Orlando City SC v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.87
$5.002.87$9.35+36%—pending
Draw in Chicago Fire v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 5.15
$5.005.15$20.75+16%—pending
Portland Timbers win in Chicago Fire v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 5.25
$5.005.25$21.25+51%—pending
New England Revolution win in Toronto FC v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.38
$5.003.38$11.90+14%—pending
Sporting Kansas City win in Colorado Rapids v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 5.75
$5.005.75$23.75+16%—pending
Minnesota United FC win in Real Salt Lake v Minnesota United FC · Match result @ 4.65
$5.004.65$18.25+37%—pending
New York Red Bulls win in Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 3.54
$5.003.54$12.70+21%—pending
Real Salt Lake win in St. Louis City v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 3.50
$5.003.50$12.50+12%-5.00lost
Columbus Crew win in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Match result @ 4.96
$5.004.96$19.80+12%-5.00lost
New England Revolution win in CF Montreal v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.54
$5.003.54$12.70+26%-5.00lost
Austin win in Colorado Rapids v Austin · Match result @ 4.50
$5.004.50$17.50+14%-5.00lost
San Diego win in Minnesota United FC v San Diego · Match result @ 3.50
$5.003.50$12.50+22%-5.00lost
Sporting Kansas City win in Sporting Kansas City v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 3.36
$5.003.36$11.80+16%-5.00lost
Draw in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 4.87
$5.004.87$19.35+19%-5.00lost
Charlotte win in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 5.50
$5.005.50$22.50+68%-5.00lost
Nashville SC win in DC United v Nashville SC · Match result @ 2.39
$5.002.39$6.95+13%-5.00lost
Los Angeles FC win in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 4.00
$5.004.00$15.00+20%-5.00lost
Portland Timbers win in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 2.48
$5.002.48$7.40+11%+7.40won
Sporting Kansas City win in Los Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 12.00
$5.0012.00$55.00+17%-5.00lost
San Diego win in San Diego v FC Dallas · Match result @ 2.12
$5.002.12$5.60+13%+5.60won
Minnesota United FC win in Minnesota United FC v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 3.85
$5.003.85$14.25+31%-5.00lost
Austin win in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Match result @ 5.00
$5.005.00$20.00+24%-5.00lost
Inter Miami win in CF Montreal v Inter Miami · Match result @ 2.17
$5.002.17$5.85+20%+5.85won
New York City FC win in New York City FC v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.38
$5.002.38$6.90+19%+6.90won
Orlando City SC win in Orlando City SC v Nashville SC · Match result @ 3.23
$5.003.23$11.15+19%+11.15won
FC Cincinnati win in Columbus Crew v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.10
$5.004.10$15.50+12%-5.00lost
Orlando City SC win in San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 5.30
$5.005.30$21.50+29%+21.50won
New York Red Bulls win in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 4.75
$5.004.75$18.75+14%-5.00lost
San Diego win in Colorado Rapids v San Diego · Match result @ 3.20
$5.003.20$11.00+37%-5.00lost
CF Montreal win in Nashville SC v CF Montreal · Match result @ 7.50
$5.007.50$32.50+10%-5.00lost
Sporting Kansas City win in Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC · Match result @ 3.65
$5.003.65$13.25+13%+13.25won
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 4.00
$5.004.00$15.00+33%+15.00won
Draw in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 5.02
$5.005.02$20.10+19%-5.00lost
Portland Timbers win in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 6.00
$5.006.00$25.00+17%+25.00won
Draw in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 5.20
$5.005.20$21.00+13%-5.00lost
Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.80
$5.006.80$29.00+46%-5.00lost
Switzerland win in Switzerland v Colombia · Match result @ 3.65
$5.003.65$13.25+56%+0.00void
Draw in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 5.00
$5.005.00$20.00+48%+0.00void
Egypt win in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 10.00
$5.0010.00$45.00+95%+0.00void

"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.