← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 16 · Tue, Jul 7, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Iván Barton, El Salvador · after extra time · pens 4–3
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Breel Embolo in Switzerland v Colombia · Score or assist @ 2.89 lost leg 2: Daniel Munoz in Switzerland v Colombia · Score or assist @ 4.31 lost | Soa duo parlay | $3.00 | 12.48 | $34.43 | +209% | -3.00 | lost |
Daniel Munoz in Switzerland v Colombia · Score or assist @ 4.31 | Prop soa | $5.00 | 4.31 | $16.55 | +82% | -5.00 | lost |
Breel Embolo in Switzerland v Colombia · Score or assist @ 2.89 | Prop soa | $5.00 | 2.89 | $9.47 | +70% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Over in Argentina v Egypt · Over/Under total cards @ 2.05 lost leg 2: Under in Switzerland v Colombia · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.62 won | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 3.32 | $11.61 | — | -5.00 | lost |
Switzerland win in Switzerland v Colombia · Match result @ 3.65 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 3.65 | $13.25 | +56% | +0.00 | void |
Draw in Switzerland v Colombia · Match result @ 3.18 | Dutch cover | $6.29 | 3.18 | $13.71 | — | +13.71 | won |
Switzerland win in Switzerland v Colombia · Match result @ 3.65 | Dutch cover | $13.71 | 3.65 | $36.33 | +56% | -13.71 | lost |
Switzerland win in Switzerland v Colombia · To advance (incl. extra time / penalties) @ 2.40 | WC futures | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | +46% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Egypt win in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 10.00 lost leg 2: Switzerland win in Switzerland v Colombia · Match result @ 3.65 lost leg 3: United States win in United States v Belgium · Match result @ 2.78 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 101.47 | $200.94 | +338% | -2.00 | lost |
Switzerland win in Switzerland v Colombia · Match result @ 3.65 | WC sim value kor | $27.96 | 3.65 | $74.09 | +56% | -27.96 | lost |
Draw in Switzerland v Colombia · Match result @ 3.18 | WC sim value kor | $5.35 | 3.18 | $11.66 | +8% | +11.66 | won |
Under in Switzerland v Colombia · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.62 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.20 | +3% | +6.20 | won |
Switzerland win in Switzerland v Colombia · Match result @ 3.65 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 3.65 | $26.50 | +56% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Switzerland v Colombia · Match result @ 3.18 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 3.18 | $21.80 | +8% | +21.80 | won |
Ruben Vargas in Switzerland v Colombia · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 8.56 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 8.56 | $37.79 | +62% | -5.00 | lost |
Breel Embolo in Switzerland v Colombia · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 3.80 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 3.80 | $14.00 | +38% | -5.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia win | 42% | 53% | 2.34 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 31% | 38% | 3.18 | value: +22% |
| Switzerland win | 27% | 8% | 3.65 | fair |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 85% | 1.62 | value: +38% ⚠ |
| Over | 40% | 15% | 2.42 | fair |
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia win | 2.19 | 2.29 | +4.5% | |
| Draw | 3.08 | 3.09 | +0.4% | |
| Switzerland win | 3.52 | 3.50 | -0.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 51' | 🟨 | Granit Xhaka · Switzerland |
| 59' | 🟨 | Denis Zakaria · Switzerland |
| 60' | 🟨 | Luis Javier Suárez · Colombia |
| 95' | 🟨 | Davinson Sánchez · Colombia |
| 105' | 🟨 | Miro Muheim · Switzerland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Switzerland | Colombia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | — | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | — | 0.33 |
| box share (last 5) | — | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1801.00 | 1467.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | — |
| duration | PENALTY_SHOOTOUT |
| final away goals | 3 |
| final home goals | 4 |
| qualified | home |
| stage | LAST_16 |
| venue | BC Place |
| Outcome |
|---|
| Market says |
|---|
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| No | 52% | 83% | 1.87 | value: +55% ⚠ |
| Yes | 48% | 17% | 2.00 | fair |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Under 8.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 56% | 1.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Diaz | 32% | 3.08 |
| Luis Fernando Diaz Marulanda | 32% | 3.55 |
| Juan Camilo Hernandez Suarez | 30% | 3.65 |
| Luis Javier Suarez Charris | 30% | 3.55 |
| Jhon Cordoba | 30% | 3.65 |
| Breel Embolo | 28% | 3.80 |
| Luis Suarez | 27% | 3.66 |
| Cedric Itten | 26% | 4.20 |
top 8 of 49 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Diaz | 41% | 2.46 |
| Luis Suarez | 38% | 2.66 |
| James Rodriguez | 37% | 2.73 |
| Breel Embolo | 35% | 2.89 |
| Ruben Vargas | 27% | 3.66 |
| Daniel Munoz | 23% | 4.31 |
| Granit Xhaka | 19% | 5.25 |
| Jefferson Lerma | 19% | 5.25 |
top 8 of 10 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Diaz | 6% | 15.64 |
| Breel Embolo | 5% | 18.75 |
| Luis Suarez | 5% | 18.75 |
| James Rodriguez | 2% | 46.79 |
| Ruben Vargas | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Fernando Diaz Marulanda 1+ | 98% | 1.02 |
| Breel Embolo 1+ | 96% | 1.04 |
| Juan Camilo Hernandez Suarez 1+ | 95% | 1.05 |
| Carlos Andres Gomez 1+ | 94% | 1.06 |
| Cedric Itten 1+ | 94% | 1.06 |
| Juan Quintero 1+ | 92% | 1.09 |
| Luis Javier Suarez Charris 1+ | 92% | 1.09 |
| Mohamed Zeki Amdouni 1+ | 89% | 1.12 |
top 8 of 46 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 24 higher-line quotes captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Fernando Diaz Marulanda 1+ | 72% | 1.44 |
| Juan Camilo Hernandez Suarez 1+ | 70% | 1.44 |
| Jhon Cordoba 1+ | 69% | 1.55 |
| Carlos Andres Gomez 1+ | 65% | 1.60 |
| Cedric Itten 1+ | 62% | 1.67 |
| Luis Javier Suarez Charris 1+ | 62% | 1.67 |
| Breel Embolo 1+ | 60% | 1.75 |
| Juan Quintero 1+ | 58% | 1.74 |
top 8 of 46 priced players · across 3 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 17 higher-line quotes captured
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| 5.20 |
| — |
| elo | 1890.10 | 1971.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.81 | 0.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | 1.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.56 | 48.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.18 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.61 |
| league points | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 4.71 | 3.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| skill v1 | 1.30 | 1.31 |
| solidity v1 | 1.06 | 2.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.89 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 29.52 | 30.21 |
| state index | 1.80 | 1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.08 | 1.87 |