Staking A/B twin of wc_sim_value_v1: identical signal (Poisson sim beats best price by 8%) but sized by kelly_of_ruin — half-Kelly scaled by the posterior probability this bankroll's edge is real, from its own settled record. Measures the staking policy, not the signal. [2026-07-07: gap-filter gate mandatory — naked longshot gaps went 8W-49L in the cup retro and the gf twin vetoed them all.]
football · Match result · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-06 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
England win in England v Argentina · Match result @ 2.86 | $25.88 | 2.86 | $48.14 | +35% | — | pending |
France win in France v Spain · Match result @ 2.45 | $9.63 | 2.45 | $13.96 | +10% | -9.63 | lost |
Draw in France v Spain · Match result @ 3.35 | $8.19 | 3.35 | $19.25 | +13% | -8.19 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 3.70 | $7.05 | 3.70 | $19.04 | +12% | +19.04 | won |
Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 5.90 | $12.16 | 5.90 | $59.62 | +37% | -12.16 | lost |
Draw in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 4.10 | $15.13 | 4.10 | $46.90 | +29% | -15.13 | lost |
Belgium win in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 5.63 | $4.63 | 5.63 | $21.44 | +13% | -4.63 | lost |
Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 | $27.63 | 4.34 | $92.28 | +94% | -27.63 | lost |
Switzerland win in Switzerland v Colombia · Match result @ 3.65 | $27.96 | 3.65 | $74.09 | +56% | -27.96 | lost |
Draw in Switzerland v Colombia · Match result @ 3.18 | $5.35 | 3.18 | $11.66 | +8% | +11.66 | won |
Draw in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 5.00 | $17.31 | 5.00 | $69.24 | +48% | -17.31 | lost |
Egypt win in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 10.00 | $15.29 | 10.00 | $137.61 | +95% | -15.29 | lost |
United States win in United States v Belgium · Match result @ 2.78 | $30.00 | 2.78 | $53.40 | +45% | -30.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.