← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 16 · Tue, Jul 7, 12:00 AM UTC · ref: Adham Mohammad, Jordan
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in United States v Belgium · Match result @ 3.54 | Dutch cover | $5.65 | 3.54 | $14.35 | — | -5.65 | lost |
United States win in United States v Belgium · Match result @ 2.78 | Dutch cover | $14.35 | 2.78 | $25.54 | +43% | -14.35 | lost |
United States win in United States v Belgium · To advance (incl. extra time / penalties) @ 1.79 | WC futures | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +18% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Egypt win in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 10.00 lost leg 2: Switzerland win in Switzerland v Colombia · Match result @ 3.65 lost leg 3: United States win in United States v Belgium · Match result @ 2.78 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 101.47 | $200.94 | +338% | -2.00 | lost |
United States win in United States v Belgium · Match result @ 2.78 | WC sim value kor | $30.00 | 2.78 | $53.40 | +45% | -30.00 | lost |
United States win in United States v Belgium · Match result @ 2.78 | Portfolio | $27.03 | 2.78 | $48.11 | +23% | -27.03 | lost |
United States win in United States v Belgium · Match result @ 2.78 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 2.78 | $17.80 | +45% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States win | 36% | 24% | 2.78 | fair |
| Belgium win | 36% | 51% | 2.85 | value: +45% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.54 | fair |
across 38 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| United States win | 51% | 1.86 |
| Belgium win | 49% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 68% |
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium win | 2.66 | 2.64 | -0.7% | |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | -0.0% | |
| United States win | 2.59 | 2.64 | +2.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 9' | ⚽ | Charles De Ketelaere · Belgium |
| 31' | ⚽ | Malik Tillman · United States |
| 33' | ⚽ | Charles De Ketelaere · Belgium |
| 35' | 🟨 | Weston McKennie · United States |
| 57' | ⚽ | Hans Vanaken · Belgium |
| 69' | 🟨 | Malik Tillman · United States |
| 90' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku · Belgium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | United States | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 128.00 | 552.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 4.20 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | away |
| stage | LAST_16 |
| venue | Lumen Field |
| 1.85 |
| value: +27% |
| Under | 46% | 32% | 2.20 | fair |
across 23 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | 69% | 1.57 | value: +8% |
| No | 40% | 31% | 2.40 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 | 50% | 1.92 |
| Over 9.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 3 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Under 3 | 49% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun | 42% | 2.40 |
| Romelu Lukaku | 41% | 2.46 |
| Christian Pulisic | 36% | 2.81 |
| Charles De Ketelaere | 23% | 4.31 |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 22% | 4.51 |
| Leandro Trossard | 22% | 4.51 |
| Jeremy Doku | 20% | 4.98 |
| Sergino Dest | 18% | 5.56 |
top 8 of 12 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Romelu Lukaku | 53% | 1.90 |
| Folarin Balogun | 47% | 2.14 |
| Christian Pulisic | 46% | 2.19 |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 41% | 2.46 |
| Charles De Ketelaere | 38% | 2.66 |
| Jeremy Doku | 37% | 2.73 |
| Leandro Trossard | 36% | 2.81 |
| Weston McKennie | 32% | 3.08 |
top 8 of 12 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Romelu Lukaku | 11% | 9.41 |
| Folarin Balogun | 10% | 10.45 |
| Christian Pulisic | 7% | 13.41 |
| Charles De Ketelaere | 5% | 18.75 |
| Leandro Trossard | 5% | 18.75 |
| Jeremy Doku | 4% | 23.43 |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 4% | 23.43 |
| Weston McKennie | 3% | 31.21 |
top 8 of 10 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun | 2% | 46.79 |
| Romelu Lukaku | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 4.00 |
| elo | 1820.28 | 1884.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.33 | 20.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 56.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 2.01 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| league points | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.50 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| solidity v1 | 1.09 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.33 | 5.63 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.38 | 29.81 |
| state index | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.17 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.76 |