← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 16 · Tue, Jul 7, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: François Letexier, France
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mohamed Salah in Argentina v Egypt · Score or assist @ 3.40 | Prop soa | $5.00 | 3.40 | $12.00 | +68% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Over in Argentina v Egypt · Over/Under total cards @ 2.05 lost leg 2: Under in Switzerland v Colombia · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.62 won | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 3.32 | $11.61 | — | -5.00 | lost |
Over 3.5 in Argentina v Egypt · Over/Under total cards @ 2.05 | Cards over ref | $10.00 | 2.05 | $10.50 | — | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 5.00 | Ref cards draw | $10.00 | 5.00 | $40.00 | — | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 5.00 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 5.00 | $20.00 | +48% | +0.00 | void |
Egypt win in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 10.00 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 10.00 | $45.00 | +95% | +0.00 | void |
Draw in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 5.00 | Dutch cover | $4.00 | 5.00 | $16.00 | — | -4.00 | lost |
Egypt win in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 10.00 | Dutch cover | $16.00 | 10.00 | $144.00 | +95% | -16.00 | lost |
Egypt win in Argentina v Egypt · To advance (incl. extra time / penalties) @ 5.90 | WC futures | $10.00 | 5.90 | $49.03 | +95% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Egypt win in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 10.00 lost leg 2: Switzerland win in Switzerland v Colombia · Match result @ 3.65 lost leg 3: United States win in United States v Belgium · Match result @ 2.78 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 101.47 | $200.94 | +338% | -2.00 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 5.00 | WC sim value kor | $17.31 | 5.00 | $69.24 | +48% | -17.31 | lost |
Egypt win in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 10.00 | WC sim value kor | $15.29 | 10.00 | $137.61 | +95% | -15.29 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 5.00 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 5.00 | $20.00 | +48% | -5.00 | lost |
Egypt win in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 10.00 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 10.00 | $45.00 | +95% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 5.00 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 5.00 | $40.00 | +48% | -10.00 | lost |
Egypt win in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 10.00 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 10.00 | $90.00 | +95% | -10.00 | lost |
Mohamed Salah in Argentina v Egypt · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 5.25 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 5.25 | $21.27 | +11% | -5.00 | lost |
Egypt win in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 10.00 | Portfolio | $4.50 | 10.00 | $40.50 | +48% | -4.50 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina win | 69% | 47% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 36% | 5.00 | value: +78% |
| Egypt win | 11% | 18% | 10.00 | value: +78% |
across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 72% | 1.85 | value: +33% ⚠ |
| Over | 47% | 28% | 2.08 | fair |
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt win | 9.41 | 8.85 | -5.9% | |
| Draw | 4.51 | 4.60 | +1.9% | |
| Argentina win | 1.36 | 1.39 | +2.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 15' | ⚽ | Yasser Ibrahim · Egypt |
| 67' | ⚽ | Mostafa Ziko · Egypt |
| 79' | ⚽ | Cristian Romero · Argentina |
| 83' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · Argentina |
| 90' | ⚽ | Enzo Fernández · Argentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mostafa Shobeir · Egypt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hamdy Fathy · Egypt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marwan Attia · Egypt |
| 90' | 🟨 | — · Egypt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Haissem Hassan · Egypt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Argentina | Egypt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2897.00 | 36.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| elo | 2064.87 | 1796.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.01 | 26.18 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | home |
| stage | LAST_16 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Stadium |
| Outcome |
|---|
| Market says |
|---|
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| No | 60% | 64% | 1.60 | fair |
| Yes | 40% | 36% | 2.40 | fair |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 8.5 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 53% | 1.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 59% | 1.82 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 41% | 2.64 |
| Julian Alvarez | 41% | 2.70 |
| Jose Manuel Alberto Lopez | 38% | 2.75 |
| Nicolas Paz Martinez | 27% | 4.00 |
| Giuliano Simeone | 26% | 4.00 |
| Thiago Almada | 23% | 5.06 |
| Nicolas Gonzalez | 20% | 5.50 |
top 8 of 47 priced players · across 9 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 77% | 1.29 |
| Julian Alvarez | 59% | 1.70 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 54% | 1.86 |
| Enzo Fernandez | 36% | 2.81 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | 31% | 3.18 |
| Mohamed Salah | 29% | 3.40 |
| Omar Marmoush | 23% | 4.31 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 27% | 3.66 |
| Julian Alvarez | 14% | 7.25 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 12% | 8.56 |
| Enzo Fernandez | 4% | 23.43 |
| Mohamed Salah | 3% | 31.21 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 7% | 13.41 |
| Julian Alvarez | 2% | 46.79 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi 1+ | 100% | 1.00 |
| Julian Alvarez 1+ | 98% | 1.02 |
| Lautaro Martinez 1+ | 98% | 1.02 |
| Giuliano Simeone 1+ | 96% | 1.04 |
| Giovani Lo Celso 1+ | 93% | 1.08 |
| Enzo Fernandez 1+ | 90% | 1.11 |
| Jose Manuel Alberto Lopez 2+ | 90% | 1.11 |
| Thiago Almada 1+ | 87% | 1.15 |
top 8 of 46 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 19 higher-line quotes captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi 1+ | 91% | 1.10 |
| Jose Manuel Alberto Lopez 1+ | 83% | 1.22 |
| Julian Alvarez 1+ | 77% | 1.43 |
| Nicolas Paz Martinez 1+ | 73% | 1.39 |
| Giuliano Simeone 1+ | 72% | 1.40 |
| Giovani Lo Celso 1+ | 63% | 1.67 |
| Nicolas Gonzalez 1+ | 58% | 1.91 |
| Lautaro Martinez 1+ | 58% | 2.65 |
top 8 of 45 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 14 higher-line quotes captured
| eye test v1 |
| 0.78 |
| 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 43.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.95 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 3.75 | 3.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.78 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| skill v1 | 1.37 | 0.47 |
| solidity v1 | 1.84 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.67 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 29.81 | 29.73 |
| state index | 1.87 | 0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.51 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.03 | 1.29 |