Score-or-assist singles with the context gates baked in from day one (graded WC window: naked SoA -60%, elite lane -51%, price 5+ 0-for-13 -> tails banned): goal involvement >= 0.40/90 over last 12 apps, price 2.0-4.5 only, expected starter, elo not against (within 50), and the keeper gate — only bet INTO a cold opposing keeper (team.keeper_form_v1 below pool median). Kalshi SoA settles via settle-kalshi-props.
football · Score or assist · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-07 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lautaro Martinez in England v Argentina · Score or assist @ 3.18 | $5.00 | 3.18 | $10.89 | +69% | +10.89 | won |
Jude Bellingham in England v Argentina · Score or assist @ 2.66 | $5.00 | 2.66 | $8.29 | +70% | -5.00 | lost |
Desire Doue in France v Spain · Score or assist @ 2.98 | $5.00 | 2.98 | $9.92 | +10% | -5.00 | lost |
Michael Olise in France v Spain · Score or assist @ 2.19 | $5.00 | 2.19 | $5.93 | +17% | -5.00 | lost |
Mikel Oyarzabal in France v Spain · Score or assist @ 2.34 | $5.00 | 2.34 | $6.71 | +31% | +6.71 | won |
Ousmane Dembele in France v Spain · Score or assist @ 2.19 | $5.00 | 2.19 | $5.93 | +50% | -5.00 | lost |
Breel Embolo in Argentina v Switzerland · Score or assist @ 3.80 | $5.00 | 3.80 | $14.00 | +123% | -5.00 | lost |
Leandro Trossard in Spain v Belgium · Score or assist @ 4.13 | $5.00 | 4.13 | $15.63 | +94% | -5.00 | lost |
Jude Bellingham in Norway v England · Score or assist @ 2.24 | $5.00 | 2.24 | $6.18 | +35% | +6.18 | won |
Ousmane Dembele in France v Morocco · Score or assist @ 2.01 | $5.00 | 2.01 | $5.05 | +42% | +5.05 | won |
Achraf Hakimi in France v Morocco · Score or assist @ 3.40 | $5.00 | 3.40 | $12.00 | +29% | -5.00 | lost |
Daniel Munoz in Switzerland v Colombia · Score or assist @ 4.31 | $5.00 | 4.31 | $16.55 | +82% | -5.00 | lost |
Breel Embolo in Switzerland v Colombia · Score or assist @ 2.89 | $5.00 | 2.89 | $9.47 | +70% | -5.00 | lost |
Mohamed Salah in Argentina v Egypt · Score or assist @ 3.40 | $5.00 | 3.40 | $12.00 | +68% | -5.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.