← FIFA World Cup 2026 · final · Sun, Jul 19, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Slavko Vinčić, Slovenia · after extra time
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in Spain v Argentina · Match result @ 3.00 | Mad game live | $157.14 | 3.00 | $314.28 | -17% | +314.28 | won |
Spain win in Spain v Argentina · Match result @ 2.20 | Mad game live | $214.29 | 2.20 | $257.15 | +4% | -214.29 | lost |
Dani Olmo in Spain v Argentina · Score or assist @ 3.66 | Prop soa | $5.00 | 3.66 | $13.28 | +12% | -5.00 | lost |
Enzo Fernandez in Spain v Argentina · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 7.85 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 7.85 | $34.25 | +8% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Spain v Argentina · Match result @ 3.07 | Main (your slate bets) | $6.61 | 3.07 | $13.68 | +4% | +13.68 | won |
Under in Spain v Argentina · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.60 | Main (your slate bets) | $26.22 | 1.60 | $15.73 | +16% | +15.73 | won |
No in Spain v Argentina · Both teams to score @ 1.91 | Main (your slate bets) | $26.22 | 1.91 | $23.86 | +24% | +23.86 | won |
Spain win in Spain v Argentina · Match result @ 2.45 | Portfolio | $14.22 | 2.45 | $20.62 | +8% | -14.22 | lost |
Mikel Oyarzabal in Spain v Argentina · Score or assist @ 2.52 | Prop soa | $5.00 | 2.52 | $7.61 | +44% | -5.00 | lost |
Lionel Messi in Spain v Argentina · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 2.66 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 2.66 | $8.29 | +14% | -5.00 | lost |
Lamine Yamal in Spain v Argentina · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 3.52 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 3.52 | $12.62 | +25% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Under in France v England · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.75 lost leg 2: Under in Spain v Argentina · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.72 won | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 4.73 | $18.65 | +47% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Spain v Argentina · Match result @ 3.15 | Dutch cover | $3.17 | 3.15 | $6.82 | — | +6.82 | won |
Spain win in Spain v Argentina · Match result @ 2.45 | Dutch cover | $16.83 | 2.45 | $24.40 | +15% | -16.83 | lost |
Under in Spain v Argentina · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.72 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 1.72 | $7.20 | +2% | +7.20 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain win | 42% | 47% | 2.46 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.16 | fair |
| Argentina win | 27% | 24% | 4.31 | value: +4% |
across 39 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 60% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 40% | 2.46 | fair |
across 24 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina win | 3.52 | 3.60 | +2.2% | |
| Draw | 2.89 | 3.05 | +5.4% | |
| Spain win | 2.24 | 2.30 | +2.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Spain · 4-2-3-1 · Luis de la Fuente
Unai Simón · Pedro Porro · Pau Cubarsí · Aymeric Laporte · Marc Cucurella · Rodri · Fabián Ruiz · Lamine Yamal · Dani Olmo · Alex Baena · Mikel Oyarzabal
Argentina · 4-4-2 · Lionel Scaloni
Emiliano Martínez · Gonzalo Montiel · Cristian Romero · Lisandro Martínez · Nicolás Tagliafico · Rodrigo De Paul · Enzo Fernández · Alexis Mac Allister · Nicolás González · Lionel Messi · Julián Alvarez
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 41' | 🟨 | Lisandro Martínez · Argentina |
| 52' | 🟨 | Leandro Paredes · Argentina |
| 82' | 🟨 | Enzo Fernández · Argentina |
| 90'+2' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Argentina |
| 90'+3' | 🟥 | Enzo Fernández · Argentina |
| 104' | 🟨 | — · Argentina |
| 106' | ⚽ | Ferran Torres · Spain |
| 111' | 🟨 | Alexis Mac Allister · Argentina |
| 120'+6' | 🟥 | Leandro Paredes · Argentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spain | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 899.00 | 2909.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d |
| duration | EXTRA_TIME |
| final away goals | 0 |
| final home goals | 1 |
| qualified | home |
| sniped | yes |
| stage | FINAL |
| venue | MetLife Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| No | 50% | 54% | 1.95 | value: +6% |
| Yes | 50% | 46% | 1.95 | fair |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 8.5 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 3.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mikel Merino | 84% | 2.24 |
| Eric Garcia | 76% | 1.31 |
| Marcos Senesi | 76% | 1.31 |
| Martin Zubimendi | 76% | 1.31 |
| Facundo Medina | 59% | 15.64 |
| Nico Williams | 49% | 4.13 |
| Giuliano Simeone | 30% | 23.43 |
| Ferran Torres | 29% | 7.25 |
top 8 of 32 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 36% | 18.75 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 34% | 3.52 |
| Borja Iglesias | 32% | 3.50 |
| Ferran Torres Garcia | 28% | 3.75 |
| Lamine Yamal | 28% | 10.45 |
| Julian Alvarez | 24% | 18.75 |
| Jose Manuel Alberto Lopez | 24% | 4.60 |
| Ferran Torres | 22% | 6.29 |
top 8 of 54 priced players · across 9 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 54% | 13.41 |
| Lamine Yamal | 43% | 10.45 |
| Aymeric Laporte | 42% | 13.41 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 40% | 2.59 |
| Pedro Porro | 31% | 13.41 |
| Julian Alvarez | 29% | 9.41 |
| Ferran Torres | 27% | 4.51 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 27% | 7.85 |
top 8 of 23 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 8% | 46.79 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 6% | 18.75 |
| Lamine Yamal | 5% | 46.79 |
| Ferran Torres | 4% | 46.79 |
| Julian Alvarez | 4% | 46.79 |
| Lautaro Martinez | 4% | 46.79 |
| Dani Olmo | 3% | 46.79 |
| Mikel Merino | 2% | 46.79 |
top 8 of 10 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi 1+ | 98% | 1.02 |
| Lamine Yamal 1+ | 96% | 1.04 |
| Borja Iglesias 1+ | 95% | 1.05 |
| Lautaro Martinez 1+ | 95% | 1.05 |
| Jose Manuel Alberto Lopez 1+ | 93% | 1.08 |
| Ferran Torres Garcia 1+ | 92% | 1.12 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal 1+ | 91% | 1.14 |
| Julian Alvarez 1+ | 89% | 1.12 |
top 8 of 46 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 55 higher-line quotes captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi 1+ | 81% | 1.26 |
| Lamine Yamal 1+ | 74% | 1.41 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal 1+ | 71% | 1.50 |
| Jose Manuel Alberto Lopez 1+ | 67% | 1.62 |
| Ferran Torres Garcia 1+ | 67% | 1.62 |
| Borja Iglesias 1+ | 64% | 1.62 |
| Julian Alvarez 1+ | 62% | 1.71 |
| Nico Williams 1+ | 59% | 1.83 |
top 8 of 46 priced players · across 4 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 4 higher-line quotes captured
| 5.00 |
| 4.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 2.67 |
| elo | 2085.27 | 2065.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.82 | 0.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | 1.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.80 | 90.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 64.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 2.71 | 2.43 |
| skill v1 | 1.76 | 2.03 |
| solidity v1 | 2.29 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.94 | 29.93 |
| state index | 2.29 | 1.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.24 | 1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.04 | 2.21 |