Bets suggested by the daily slate builder (value singles + a fun parlay + a longshot).
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Under in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.37 | $18.66 | 2.37 | $25.56 | +9% | — | pending |
Yes in England v Argentina · Both teams to score @ 1.95 | $17.91 | 1.95 | $17.01 | +6% | +17.01 | won |
Over in England v Argentina · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 | $23.30 | 2.20 | $27.96 | +31% | +27.96 | won |
England win in England v Argentina · Match result @ 2.69 | $23.30 | 2.69 | $39.38 | +75% | -23.30 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 3.61 | $6.28 | 3.61 | $16.39 | +5% | +16.39 | won |
Draw in France v Spain · Match result @ 3.25 | $24.44 | 3.25 | $54.99 | +85% | -24.44 | lost |
Under in France v Spain · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.94 | $24.44 | 1.94 | $22.97 | +86% | +22.97 | won |
No in France v Spain · Both teams to score @ 2.10 | $24.44 | 2.10 | $26.88 | +87% | +26.88 | won |
| hand-logged bet | $24.44 | 1.60 | $14.66 | — | +0.00 | void |
Over 8.5 in Mexico v England · Over/Under total corners @ 2.00 | $5.00 | 2.00 | $5.00 | +24% | +5.00 | won |
Over 2.5 in Mexico v England · Over/Under total cards @ 1.60 | $10.00 | 1.60 | $6.00 | +38% | +6.00 | won |
Over in Canada v Morocco · Over/Under total corners @ 1.85 | $5.00 | 1.85 | $4.25 | +3% | +4.25 | won |
Over in Canada v Morocco · Over/Under total cards @ 1.70 | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.00 | +33% | +7.00 | won |
Draw in Canada v Morocco · Match result @ 3.64 | $10.00 | 3.64 | $26.40 | +26% | -10.00 | lost |
Over in Portugal v Croatia · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.92 | $10.00 | 1.92 | $9.20 | +26% | +9.20 | won |
Portugal win in Portugal v Croatia · Match result @ 1.75 | $15.00 | 1.75 | $11.25 | +45% | +11.25 | won |
Draw in Argentina v Cape Verde Islands · Match result @ 8.53 | $1.00 | 8.53 | $7.53 | +101% | +7.53 | won |
leg 1: Under in Colombia v Ghana · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.67 won leg 2: Under in Australia v Egypt · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.44 won leg 3: Over in Switzerland v Algeria · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 lost | $5.00 | 5.29 | $21.45 | +323% | -5.00 | lost |
Switzerland win in Switzerland v Algeria · Match result @ 2.02 | $20.55 | 2.02 | $20.96 | +70% | +20.96 | won |
Under in Argentina v Cape Verde Islands · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 | $20.55 | 2.20 | $24.66 | +74% | +24.66 | won |
Over in Switzerland v Algeria · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 | $20.55 | 2.20 | $24.66 | +92% | -20.55 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Cape Verde Islands · Match result @ 8.53 | $20.55 | 8.53 | $154.74 | +101% | +154.74 | won |
Draw in Colombia v Ghana · Match result @ 4.37 | $20.55 | 4.37 | $69.25 | +151% | -20.55 | lost |
Burnley win in Everton v Burnley · Match result @ 6.00 | $1.00 | 6.00 | $5.00 | +29% | -1.00 | lost |
leg 1: Over in Fulham v Tottenham · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.73 won leg 2: Over in Fulham v West Ham · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.73 lost leg 3: Under in Leeds v Sunderland · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.73 won | $5.00 | 5.18 | $20.89 | +15% | -5.00 | lost |
Fulham win in Fulham v West Ham · Match result @ 2.00 | $13.21 | 2.00 | $13.21 | +5% | -13.21 | lost |
Over in Fulham v Tottenham · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.73 | $20.00 | 1.73 | $14.60 | +9% | +14.60 | won |
Tottenham win in Fulham v Tottenham · Match result @ 3.30 | $12.27 | 3.30 | $28.22 | +11% | -12.27 | lost |
Under in Man United v Crystal Palace · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 | $20.00 | 2.20 | $24.00 | +15% | -20.00 | lost |
Newcastle win in Newcastle v Man United · Match result @ 2.63 | $20.00 | 2.63 | $32.60 | +24% | +32.60 | won |
Burnley win in Everton v Burnley · Match result @ 6.00 | $14.68 | 6.00 | $73.40 | +29% | -14.68 | lost |
Sunderland win in Leeds v Sunderland · Match result @ 4.33 | $20.00 | 4.33 | $66.60 | +48% | +66.60 | won |
Crystal Palace win in Man United v Crystal Palace · Match result @ 5.50 | $20.00 | 5.50 | $90.00 | +54% | -20.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.