← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Jul 25, 11:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Chapman
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: FC Cincinnati win in Columbus Crew v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.10 lost leg 2: Austin win in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Match result @ 5.00 lost | WC parlay | $5.00 | 20.50 | $97.50 | +40% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Under in New York Red Bulls v Charlotte · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.55 won leg 2: Under in Columbus Crew v FC Cincinnati · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.10 lost | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 7.91 | $34.52 | +21% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: FC Cincinnati win in Columbus Crew v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.10 lost leg 2: Austin win in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Match result @ 5.00 lost | WC parlay | $5.00 | 20.50 | $97.50 | +40% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Under in New York Red Bulls v Charlotte · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.55 won leg 2: Under in Columbus Crew v FC Cincinnati · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.10 lost | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 7.91 | $34.52 | +21% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Columbus Crew v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.40 | Dutch cover | $2.27 | 4.40 | $7.72 | — | -2.27 | lost |
FC Cincinnati win in Columbus Crew v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.10 | Dutch cover | $17.73 | 4.10 | $54.96 | +12% | -17.73 | lost |
FC Cincinnati win in Columbus Crew v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.10 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 4.10 | $15.50 | +12% | -5.00 | lost |
Under in Columbus Crew v FC Cincinnati · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.10 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 3.10 | $21.00 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
FC Cincinnati win in Columbus Crew v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.10 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.10 | $15.50 | +12% | -5.00 | lost |
FC Cincinnati win in Columbus Crew v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.31 | Main (your slate bets) | $13.30 | 4.31 | $44.02 | +17% | -13.30 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew win | 54% | 50% | 1.84 | fair |
| FC Cincinnati win | 24% | 27% | 4.31 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.45 | fair |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 68% | 1.41 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 32% | 3.20 | value: +4% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati win | 3.95 | 3.77 | -4.4% | |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.13 | +0.6% | |
| Columbus Crew win | 1.74 | 1.81 | +3.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 9' | ⚽ | Kévin Denkey · FC Cincinnati |
| 41' | ⚽ | Jamal Thiaré · Columbus Crew |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Dániel Gazdag · Columbus Crew |
| 66' | 🟨 | Matthew Miazga · FC Cincinnati |
| 90' | 🟥 | Gerardo Valenzuela · FC Cincinnati |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Columbus Crew | FC Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.62 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.51 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 174.00 | 1635.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | ScottsMiracle-Gro Field |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 67% | 67% | 1.44 | fair |
| No | 33% | 33% | 2.92 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 51% | 1.87 |
| Under 9.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | 55% | 1.80 |
| Over 4.5 | 45% | 2.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| 3.80 |
| 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.55 |
| elo | 1509.30 | 1557.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.01 | 15.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 1.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.37 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| league points | 16.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 26.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.20 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 2.98 | 2.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.44 |
| skill v1 | 1.09 | 0.85 |
| solidity v1 | -0.50 | -1.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.73 | 26.84 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.69 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 2.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.27 | 2.05 |