Knockout football is cagey (legs tighten when losing means going home): under 2.5 goals when the sim agrees (any positive edge). Hypothesis-tagged.
football · Over/Under 2.5 goals · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-03 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Under in Colorado Rapids v CF Montreal · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 | $10.00 | 2.38 | $13.80 | +2% | — | pending |
Under in Real Salt Lake v New York City FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.40 | $10.00 | 2.40 | $14.00 | +22% | — | pending |
Under in DC United v Atlanta United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.28 | $10.00 | 2.28 | $12.80 | +2% | — | pending |
Under in Minnesota United FC v FC Dallas · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.30 | $10.00 | 2.30 | $13.00 | +8% | — | pending |
Under in Houston Dynamo v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.30 | $10.00 | 2.30 | $13.00 | +17% | — | pending |
Under in Toronto FC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.16 | $10.00 | 2.16 | $11.60 | +22% | — | pending |
Under in Real Salt Lake v Los Angeles FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.33 | $10.00 | 2.33 | $13.30 | +10% | — | pending |
Under in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 | $10.00 | 2.10 | $11.00 | +15% | — | pending |
Under in Colorado Rapids v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 | $10.00 | 2.38 | $13.80 | +9% | — | pending |
Under in Toronto FC v New York City FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.18 | $10.00 | 2.18 | $11.80 | +21% | — | pending |
Under in New England Revolution v New York City FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.12 | $10.00 | 2.12 | $11.20 | +6% | — | pending |
Under in Colorado Rapids v Los Angeles FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.28 | $10.00 | 2.28 | $12.80 | +2% | — | pending |
Under in Minnesota United FC v Atlanta United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.28 | $10.00 | 2.28 | $12.80 | +7% | — | pending |
Under in New York City FC v Philadelphia Union · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.18 | $10.00 | 2.18 | $11.80 | +6% | — | pending |
Under in Real Salt Lake v Minnesota United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 | $10.00 | 2.25 | $12.50 | +12% | — | pending |
Under in Toronto FC v New England Revolution · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 | $10.00 | 2.10 | $11.00 | +9% | — | pending |
Under in New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.05 | $10.00 | 2.05 | $10.50 | +3% | — | pending |
Under in Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.72 | $10.00 | 2.72 | $17.20 | +26% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in Colorado Rapids v Austin · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.43 | $10.00 | 2.43 | $14.30 | +8% | +14.30 | won |
Under in St. Louis City v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.55 | $10.00 | 2.55 | $15.50 | +14% | +15.50 | won |
Under in Minnesota United FC v San Diego · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.63 | $10.00 | 2.63 | $16.30 | +14% | +16.30 | won |
Under in Sporting Kansas City v Houston Dynamo · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.45 | $10.00 | 2.45 | $14.50 | +5% | +14.50 | won |
Under in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.94 | $10.00 | 2.94 | $19.40 | +22% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in FC Cincinnati v San Jose Earthquakes · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.60 | $10.00 | 3.60 | $26.00 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in CF Montreal v New England Revolution · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.17 | $10.00 | 2.17 | $11.70 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.55 | $10.00 | 2.55 | $15.50 | +12% | +15.50 | won |
Under in New York Red Bulls v Orlando City SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.50 | $10.00 | 3.50 | $25.00 | +25% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in Philadelphia Union v Atlanta United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.41 | $10.00 | 2.41 | $14.10 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in New York City FC v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.17 | $10.00 | 2.17 | $11.70 | +10% | +11.70 | won |
Under in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.88 | $10.00 | 2.88 | $18.80 | +19% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in Los Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.70 | $10.00 | 3.70 | $27.00 | +11% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in Minnesota United FC v Vancouver Whitecaps · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.45 | $10.00 | 2.45 | $14.50 | +10% | +14.50 | won |
Under in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.23 | $10.00 | 2.23 | $12.30 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in DC United v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.00 | $10.00 | 2.00 | $10.00 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in New England Revolution v Atlanta United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.08 | $10.00 | 2.08 | $10.80 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in New York City FC v Chicago Fire · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 | $10.00 | 2.38 | $13.80 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in Philadelphia Union v Seattle Sounders · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.29 | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.90 | +15% | +12.90 | won |
Under in Orlando City SC v Nashville SC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.45 | $10.00 | 2.45 | $14.50 | +0% | +14.50 | won |
Under in Columbus Crew v FC Cincinnati · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.10 | $10.00 | 3.10 | $21.00 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in New York Red Bulls v Charlotte · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.55 | $10.00 | 2.55 | $15.50 | +20% | +15.50 | won |
Under in Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.61 | $10.00 | 2.61 | $16.10 | +16% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in Colorado Rapids v San Diego · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.95 | $10.00 | 2.95 | $19.50 | +1% | +19.50 | won |
Under in Austin v Seattle Sounders · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 | $10.00 | 2.25 | $12.50 | +22% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in Nashville SC v CF Montreal · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 | $10.00 | 2.38 | $13.80 | +1% | +13.80 | won |
Under in Sporting Kansas City v Minnesota United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.60 | $10.00 | 2.60 | $16.00 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in Charlotte v Atlanta United FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.22 | $10.00 | 2.22 | $12.20 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.10 | $10.00 | 3.10 | $21.00 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in Columbus Crew v New York City FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in New England Revolution v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 | $10.00 | 2.10 | $11.00 | +3% | +11.00 | won |
Under in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.70 | $10.00 | 2.70 | $17.00 | +17% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in Spain v Argentina · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.72 | $10.00 | 1.72 | $7.20 | +2% | +7.20 | won |
Under in France v England · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.75 | $10.00 | 2.75 | $17.50 | +44% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.06 | $10.00 | 3.06 | $20.60 | +44% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.02 | $10.00 | 3.02 | $20.20 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 | $10.00 | 2.38 | $13.80 | +9% | +13.80 | won |
Under in France v Spain · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.04 | $10.00 | 2.04 | $10.40 | +31% | +10.40 | won |
Under in Spain v Belgium · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.11 | $10.00 | 2.11 | $11.10 | +23% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in Switzerland v Colombia · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.62 | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.20 | +3% | +6.20 | won |
Under in Portugal v Spain · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 | $10.00 | 2.10 | $11.00 | +38% | +11.00 | won |
Under in Mexico v England · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.66 | $10.00 | 1.66 | $6.60 | +47% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in Colombia v Ghana · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.78 | $10.00 | 1.78 | $7.80 | +75% | +7.80 | won |
Under in Australia v Egypt · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.49 | $10.00 | 1.49 | $4.90 | +40% | +4.90 | won |
Under in Argentina v Cape Verde Islands · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 | $10.00 | 2.38 | $13.80 | +124% | +13.80 | won |
Under in Paraguay v France · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.35 | $10.00 | 2.35 | $13.50 | +22% | +13.50 | won |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.