Knockout football is cagey (legs tighten when losing means going home): under 2.5 goals when the sim agrees (any positive edge). Hypothesis-tagged.
football · Over/Under 2.5 goals · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-03 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Under in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.06 | $10.00 | 3.06 | $20.60 | +44% | — | pending |
Under in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.02 | $10.00 | 3.02 | $20.20 | +8% | — | pending |
Under in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 | $10.00 | 2.38 | $13.80 | +9% | — | pending |
Under in France v Spain · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.04 | $10.00 | 2.04 | $10.40 | +31% | +10.40 | won |
Under in Spain v Belgium · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.11 | $10.00 | 2.11 | $11.10 | +23% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in Switzerland v Colombia · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.62 | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.20 | +3% | +6.20 | won |
Under in Portugal v Spain · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 | $10.00 | 2.10 | $11.00 | +38% | +11.00 | won |
Under in Mexico v England · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.66 | $10.00 | 1.66 | $6.60 | +47% | -10.00 | lost |
Under in Colombia v Ghana · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.78 | $10.00 | 1.78 | $7.80 | +75% | +7.80 | won |
Under in Australia v Egypt · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 1.49 | $10.00 | 1.49 | $4.90 | +40% | +4.90 | won |
Under in Argentina v Cape Verde Islands · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 | $10.00 | 2.38 | $13.80 | +124% | +13.80 | won |
Under in Paraguay v France · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.35 | $10.00 | 2.35 | $13.50 | +22% | +13.50 | won |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.