← Major League Soccer 2026 · Fri, Jul 17, 12:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Chapman
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 5.00 | Mad game live | $150.00 | 5.00 | $600.00 | +9% | -150.00 | lost |
St. Louis City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 1.50 | Mad game live | $500.00 | 1.50 | $250.00 | -15% | +250.00 | won |
leg 1: Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.80 lost leg 2: Portland Timbers win in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 6.00 won | WC parlay | $5.00 | 40.80 | $199.00 | +71% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Under in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 won leg 2: Under in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.02 lost | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 7.19 | $30.94 | +18% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.80 lost leg 2: Portland Timbers win in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 6.00 won | WC parlay | $5.00 | 40.80 | $199.00 | +71% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Under in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 won leg 2: Under in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.02 lost | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 7.19 | $30.94 | +18% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.80 lost leg 2: Under in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.06 lost leg 3: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 34.28 | $66.57 | +130% | -2.00 | lost |
Draw in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 5.20 | Dutch cover | $1.92 | 5.20 | $8.06 | — | -1.92 | lost |
Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.80 | Dutch cover | $18.08 | 6.80 | $104.86 | +46% | -18.08 | lost |
Draw in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 5.20 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 5.20 | $21.00 | +13% | -5.00 | lost |
Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.80 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 6.80 | $29.00 | +46% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 5.20 | WC sim value kor | $3.06 | 5.20 | $12.85 | +13% | -3.06 | lost |
Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.80 | WC sim value kor | $8.10 | 6.80 | $46.98 | +46% | -8.10 | lost |
Under in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.02 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 3.02 | $20.20 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 5.20 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 5.20 | $21.00 | +13% | -5.00 | lost |
Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.80 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 6.80 | $29.00 | +46% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 5.20 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 5.20 | $42.00 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.80 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 6.80 | $58.00 | +46% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City win | 66% | 57% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 22% | 5.20 | value: +13% |
| Sporting Kansas City win | 15% | 21% | 7.40 | value: +59% |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 64% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 36% | 3.10 | value: +11% |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City win | 6.00 | 6.20 | +3.3% | |
| Draw | 4.90 | 5.00 | +2.0% | |
| St. Louis City win | 1.43 | 1.43 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 28' | ⚽ | Sang-bin Jeong · St. Louis City |
| 36' | ⚽ | Marcel Hartel · St. Louis City |
| 42' | ⚽ | Capita · Sporting Kansas City |
| 76' | ⚽ | Dejan Joveljić · Sporting Kansas City |
| 78' | 🟨 | Capita · Sporting Kansas City |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Eduard Löwen · St. Louis City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Benjamin Lundt · St. Louis City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Edelman · St. Louis City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Louis City | Sporting Kansas City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.47 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 166.00 | 166.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | CITYPARK |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 61% | 62% | 1.60 | fair |
| No | 39% | 38% | 2.45 | fair |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 10 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under 10 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 | 56% | 1.68 |
| Over 4.5 | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3.80 |
| 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.49 | 1.97 |
| elo | 1449.86 | 1345.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.14 | 20.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.74 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.94 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| league points | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 29.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.79 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.17 |
| solidity v1 | 0.45 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.68 | 25.46 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.41 |