← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 16, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Under in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 leg 2: Under in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.02 | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 7.19 | $30.94 | +18% | — | pending |
leg 1: Under in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 leg 2: Under in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.02 | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 7.19 | $30.94 | +18% | — | pending |
Draw in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Match result @ 3.84 | Dutch cover | $2.60 | 3.84 | $7.38 | — | — | pending |
Toronto FC win in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Match result @ 3.65 | Dutch cover | $17.40 | 3.65 | $46.11 | +7% | — | pending |
Under in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.38 | $13.80 | +9% | — | pending |
Under in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.37 | Main (your slate bets) | $18.66 | 2.37 | $25.56 | +9% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal win | 48% | 45% | 2.05 | fair |
| Toronto FC win | 26% | 29% | 4.05 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.95 | fair |
across 22 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 54% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 46% | 2.38 | value: +9% |
across 13 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC win | 3.80 | 3.45 | -9.2% | |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.75 | -2.6% | |
| CF Montreal win | 1.85 | 1.98 | +7.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | Saputo Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 60% | 57% | 1.62 | fair |
| No | 40% | 43% | 2.45 | value: +4% |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under 9.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | 55% | 1.72 |
| Under 4.5 | 45% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)