← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 16, 11:30 PM UTC · ref: G. J. Gonzalez
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Toronto FC win in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Match result @ 3.10 | Mad game live | $144.74 | 3.10 | $303.95 | -8% | -144.74 | lost |
CF Montreal win in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Match result @ 2.20 | Mad game live | $203.95 | 2.20 | $244.74 | +0% | -203.95 | lost |
leg 1: Under in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 won leg 2: Under in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.02 lost | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 7.19 | $30.94 | +18% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Under in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 won leg 2: Under in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.02 lost | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 7.19 | $30.94 | +18% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Match result @ 3.84 | Dutch cover | $2.60 | 3.84 | $7.38 | — | +7.38 | won |
Toronto FC win in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Match result @ 3.65 | Dutch cover | $17.40 | 3.65 | $46.11 | +7% | -17.40 | lost |
Under in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.38 | $13.80 | +9% | +13.80 | won |
Under in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.37 | Main (your slate bets) | $18.66 | 2.37 | $25.56 | +9% | +25.56 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal win | 48% | 45% | 2.05 | fair |
| Toronto FC win | 27% | 29% | 4.05 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.95 | fair |
across 22 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 54% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 46% | 2.38 | value: +8% |
across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC win | 3.80 | 3.50 | -7.9% | |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.72 | -3.4% | |
| CF Montreal win | 1.85 | 2.00 | +8.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 64' | 🟨 | Daniel Pereira · CF Montreal |
| 69' | 🟨 | Dániel Sallói · Toronto FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CF Montreal | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 106.00 | 561.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Saputo Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 60% | 58% | 1.62 | fair |
| No | 40% | 42% | 2.45 | value: +4% |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under 9.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 2 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 | 55% | 1.72 |
| Under 4.5 | 45% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7.80 |
| 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.69 | 2.56 |
| elo | 1399.19 | 1406.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.74 | -34.86 |
| eye test v1 | 1.14 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.92 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.60 |
| league points | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 27.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | 0.01 |
| solidity v1 | -0.64 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.73 | 27.29 |
| state index | -0.35 | -1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 0.98 |