Mad-game mode, live: the whole $1000 game budget committed to ONE match. Plan: spray_and_pray — equal-revenue dutch with a +10% return target, the one-game-format champion of the 12-plan mad-game replay (exp #225: median $1,100, 75.6% hit rate, 0.4% bust vs tranche_ladder's $758/10.7%). By 12' the watcher covers the largest outcome set whose dutch return clears the target at real live prices, stakes ~1/price (small on longshots, big on favourites), and holds the unstaked remainder as the designed loss buffer. tranche_ladder remains available via bet_rule.plan. One contest per day.
football · Match result · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-09 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Argentina win in England v Argentina · Match result @ 3.10 | $108.81 | 3.10 | $228.50 | -16% | +228.50 | won |
England win in England v Argentina · Match result @ 2.63 | $128.50 | 2.63 | $208.81 | +28% | -128.50 | lost |
Draw in France v Spain · Match result @ 2.88 | $128.24 | 2.88 | $240.45 | -17% | -128.24 | lost |
France win in France v Spain · Match result @ 2.63 | $140.46 | 2.63 | $228.25 | +23% | -140.46 | lost |
Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 6.00 | $65.54 | 6.00 | $327.70 | +53% | -65.54 | lost |
Argentina win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 1.73 | $227.70 | 1.73 | $165.54 | -16% | -227.70 | lost |
England win in Norway v England · Match result @ 1.80 | $285.71 | 1.80 | $228.57 | -41% | -285.71 | lost |
Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.00 | $128.57 | 4.00 | $385.71 | +84% | -128.57 | lost |
Draw in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 3.80 | $201.22 | 3.80 | $563.42 | +1% | -201.22 | lost |
Spain win in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 1.65 | $463.41 | 1.65 | $301.22 | -16% | +301.22 | won |
Draw in France v Morocco · Match result @ 3.75 | $275.49 | 3.75 | $757.60 | -20% | -275.49 | lost |
France win in France v Morocco · Match result @ 1.57 | $657.61 | 1.57 | $375.50 | +13% | +375.50 | won |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.