Mad-game mode, live: the whole $1000 game budget committed to ONE match. Plan: spray_and_pray — equal-revenue dutch with a +10% return target, the one-game-format champion of the 12-plan mad-game replay (exp #225: median $1,100, 75.6% hit rate, 0.4% bust vs tranche_ladder's $758/10.7%). By 12' the watcher covers the largest outcome set whose dutch return clears the target at real live prices, stakes ~1/price (small on longshots, big on favourites), and holds the unstaked remainder as the designed loss buffer. tranche_ladder remains available via bet_rule.plan. One contest per day.
football · Match result · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-09 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Columbus Crew win in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Match result @ 5.00 | $110.62 | 5.00 | $442.48 | +14% | -110.62 | lost |
Inter Miami win in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Match result @ 1.61 | $342.47 | 1.61 | $210.62 | -6% | -342.47 | lost |
Los Angeles FC win in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 4.10 | $137.75 | 4.10 | $427.02 | +25% | -137.75 | lost |
Vancouver Whitecaps win in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 1.73 | $327.03 | 1.73 | $237.75 | -22% | -327.03 | lost |
Draw in New York City FC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 4.00 | $146.23 | 4.00 | $438.69 | -6% | +438.69 | won |
New York City FC win in New York City FC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 1.73 | $338.70 | 1.73 | $246.23 | +2% | -338.70 | lost |
Draw in Charlotte v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 3.40 | $117.02 | 3.40 | $280.85 | -17% | +280.85 | won |
Charlotte win in Charlotte v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 2.20 | $180.85 | 2.20 | $217.02 | +19% | -180.85 | lost |
Chicago Fire win in Inter Miami v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.38 | $216.67 | 2.38 | $297.92 | -54% | -216.67 | lost |
Inter Miami win in Inter Miami v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.60 | $197.92 | 2.60 | $316.67 | +65% | +316.67 | won |
Draw in Spain v Argentina · Match result @ 3.00 | $157.14 | 3.00 | $314.28 | -17% | +314.28 | won |
Spain win in Spain v Argentina · Match result @ 2.20 | $214.29 | 2.20 | $257.15 | +4% | -214.29 | lost |
Draw in Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 4.33 | $173.95 | 4.33 | $579.78 | -6% | -173.95 | lost |
Nashville SC win in Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 1.57 | $479.77 | 1.57 | $273.95 | -3% | +273.95 | won |
Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 5.00 | $150.00 | 5.00 | $600.00 | +9% | -150.00 | lost |
St. Louis City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 1.50 | $500.00 | 1.50 | $250.00 | -15% | +250.00 | won |
Toronto FC win in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Match result @ 3.10 | $144.74 | 3.10 | $303.95 | -8% | -144.74 | lost |
CF Montreal win in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Match result @ 2.20 | $203.95 | 2.20 | $244.74 | +0% | -203.95 | lost |
Argentina win in England v Argentina · Match result @ 3.10 | $108.81 | 3.10 | $228.50 | -16% | +228.50 | won |
England win in England v Argentina · Match result @ 2.63 | $128.50 | 2.63 | $208.81 | +28% | -128.50 | lost |
Draw in France v Spain · Match result @ 2.88 | $128.24 | 2.88 | $240.45 | -17% | -128.24 | lost |
France win in France v Spain · Match result @ 2.63 | $140.46 | 2.63 | $228.25 | +23% | -140.46 | lost |
Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 6.00 | $65.54 | 6.00 | $327.70 | +53% | -65.54 | lost |
Argentina win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 1.73 | $227.70 | 1.73 | $165.54 | -16% | -227.70 | lost |
England win in Norway v England · Match result @ 1.80 | $285.71 | 1.80 | $228.57 | -41% | -285.71 | lost |
Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.00 | $128.57 | 4.00 | $385.71 | +84% | -128.57 | lost |
Draw in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 3.80 | $201.22 | 3.80 | $563.42 | +1% | -201.22 | lost |
Spain win in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 1.65 | $463.41 | 1.65 | $301.22 | -16% | +301.22 | won |
Draw in France v Morocco · Match result @ 3.75 | $275.49 | 3.75 | $757.60 | -20% | -275.49 | lost |
France win in France v Morocco · Match result @ 1.57 | $657.61 | 1.57 | $375.50 | +13% | +375.50 | won |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.