← FIFA World Cup 2026 · quarter finals · Fri, Jul 10, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 3.80 | Mad game live | $201.22 | 3.80 | $563.42 | +1% | -201.22 | lost |
Spain win in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 1.65 | Mad game live | $463.41 | 1.65 | $301.22 | -16% | +301.22 | won |
Fabian Ruiz in Spain v Belgium · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 6.74 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 6.74 | $28.69 | +11% | +28.69 | won |
leg 1: Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 lost leg 2: Belgium win in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 6.20 lost | WC parlay | $5.00 | 26.91 | $129.54 | +141% | -5.00 | lost |
leg 1: Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 lost leg 2: Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 6.40 lost leg 3: Draw in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 4.20 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 116.66 | $231.32 | +280% | -2.00 | lost |
Draw in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 4.20 | WC form edge | $10.00 | 4.20 | $32.00 | +32% | -10.00 | lost |
Belgium win in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 6.20 | WC form edge | $10.00 | 6.20 | $52.00 | +25% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 4.10 | Portfolio | $11.33 | 4.10 | $35.12 | +14% | -11.33 | lost |
Leandro Trossard in Spain v Belgium · Score or assist @ 4.13 | Prop soa | $5.00 | 4.13 | $15.63 | +94% | -5.00 | lost |
Alexis Saelemaekers in Spain v Belgium · Anytime goalscorer (1+) @ 8.50 | Prop scorer | $5.00 | 8.50 | $37.50 | +16% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 4.10 | Dutch cover | $2.44 | 4.10 | $7.56 | — | -2.44 | lost |
Belgium win in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 5.63 | Dutch cover | $17.56 | 5.63 | $81.30 | +13% | -17.56 | lost |
Draw in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 4.10 | WC sim value kor | $15.13 | 4.10 | $46.90 | +29% | -15.13 | lost |
Belgium win in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 5.63 | WC sim value kor | $4.63 | 5.63 | $21.44 | +13% | -4.63 | lost |
Under in Spain v Belgium · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.11 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.11 | $11.10 | +23% | -10.00 | lost |
Draw in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 4.10 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.10 | $15.50 | +29% | -5.00 | lost |
Belgium win in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 5.63 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 5.63 | $23.15 | +13% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 4.10 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 4.10 | $31.00 | +29% | -10.00 | lost |
Belgium win in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 5.63 | WC sim value | $10.00 | 5.63 | $46.30 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain win | 59% | 48% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 31% | 4.20 | value: +32% |
| Belgium win | 17% | 20% | 6.20 | value: +25% |
across 40 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 42% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 58% | 2.20 | value: +28% |
across 25 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium win | 5.56 | 5.70 | +2.5% | |
| Draw | 3.88 | 4.00 | +3.1% | |
| Spain win | 1.61 | 1.63 | +1.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
Spain · 4-2-3-1 · Luis de la Fuente
Unai Simón · Pedro Porro · Pau Cubarsí · Aymeric Laporte · Marc Cucurella · Rodri · Fabián Ruiz · Lamine Yamal · Dani Olmo · Alex Baena · Mikel Oyarzabal
Belgium · 4-2-3-1 · Rudi Garcia
Thibaut Courtois · Timothy Castagne · Nathan Ngoy · Brandon Mechele · Maxim De Cuyper · Youri Tielemans · Nicolas Raskin · Leandro Trossard · Kevin De Bruyne · Jérémy Doku · Charles De Ketelaere
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 30' | ⚽ | Fabián Ruiz · Spain |
| 41' | ⚽ | Charles De Ketelaere · Belgium |
| 43' | 🟨 | Pau Cubarsí · Spain |
| 85' | 🟨 | Kevin De Bruyne · Belgium |
| 88' | ⚽ | Mikel Merino · Spain |
| 90'+3' | 🟨 | Aymeric Laporte · Spain |
| 90'+5' | 🟨 | Axel Witsel · Belgium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spain | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 890.00 | 555.00 |
| congestion 21d | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | home |
| sniped | yes |
| stage | QUARTER_FINALS |
| venue | SoFi Stadium |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 53% | 48% | 1.82 | fair |
| No | 47% | 52% | 2.10 | value: +10% |
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Over 9.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 57% | 1.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 2.22 |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 20% | 4.98 |
| No Goal | 18% | 5.56 |
| Lamine Yamal | 14% | 7.25 |
| Alex Baena | 10% | 10.45 |
| Dani Olmo | 10% | 10.45 |
| Charles De Ketelaere | 7% | 13.41 |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 6% | 15.64 |
| Fabian Ruiz | 5% | 18.75 |
top 8 of 18 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 47% | 2.40 |
| Borja Iglesias | 43% | 2.45 |
| Lamine Yamal | 39% | 2.98 |
| Ferran Torres Garcia | 37% | 3.00 |
| Nico Williams | 30% | 3.55 |
| Romelu Lukaku | 28% | 4.31 |
| Victor Munoz | 27% | 4.10 |
| Dani Olmo | 26% | 4.51 |
top 8 of 51 priced players · across 9 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 57% | 1.76 |
| Lamine Yamal | 55% | 1.83 |
| Alex Baena | 42% | 2.40 |
| Ferran Torres | 37% | 2.73 |
| Fabian Ruiz | 35% | 2.89 |
| Dani Olmo | 32% | 3.08 |
| Pedro Porro | 29% | 3.40 |
| Romelu Lukaku | 27% | 3.66 |
top 8 of 23 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 12% | 8.56 |
| Lamine Yamal | 10% | 10.45 |
| Alex Baena | 3% | 31.21 |
| Dani Olmo | 3% | 31.21 |
| Romelu Lukaku | 3% | 31.21 |
| Charles De Ketelaere | 2% | 46.79 |
| Fabian Ruiz | 2% | 46.79 |
| Jeremy Doku | 2% | 46.79 |
top 8 of 11 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 3% | 31.21 |
| Lamine Yamal | 2% | 46.79 |
across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100%
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal 1+ | 98% | 1.02 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal 1+ | 98% | 1.02 |
| Mikel Merino 1+ | 96% | 1.04 |
| Nico Williams 1+ | 96% | 1.04 |
| Romelu Lukaku 1+ | 95% | 1.05 |
| Yeremy Pino 1+ | 95% | 1.05 |
| Ferran Torres Garcia 1+ | 94% | 1.10 |
| Alejandro Baena 1+ | 93% | 1.12 |
top 8 of 45 priced players · across 1 bookmaker · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 38 higher-line quotes captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal 1+ | 82% | 1.25 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal 1+ | 80% | 1.29 |
| Borja Iglesias 1+ | 72% | 1.40 |
| Ferran Torres Garcia 1+ | 72% | 1.40 |
| Nico Williams 1+ | 69% | 1.46 |
| Victor Munoz 1+ | 68% | 1.55 |
| Mikel Merino 1+ | 64% | 1.70 |
| Yeremy Pino 1+ | 61% | 1.70 |
top 8 of 45 priced players · across 2 bookmakers · each line is its own yes/no market — chances don't add up to 100% · each player's lowest line shown — 22 higher-line quotes captured
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | — |
| elo | 2064.82 | 1901.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.94 | 40.41 |
| eye test v1 | 1.19 | 1.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 52.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 2.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | — |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| league points | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.80 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.95 | 1.20 |
| solidity v1 | 2.49 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 5.78 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.53 | 29.06 |
| state index | 2.09 | 1.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.10 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.28 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.01 | 2.15 |