World Cup knockout chaos: longshots priced 4-10 where the sim still sees positive edge. Small stakes, big stories.
football · Match result · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-03 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 5.02 | $5.00 | 5.02 | $20.10 | +19% | — | pending |
Portland Timbers win in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 6.00 | $5.00 | 6.00 | $25.00 | +17% | — | pending |
Draw in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 5.20 | $5.00 | 5.20 | $21.00 | +13% | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.80 | $5.00 | 6.80 | $29.00 | +46% | — | pending |
Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 5.90 | $5.00 | 5.90 | $24.51 | +37% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 4.10 | $5.00 | 4.10 | $15.50 | +29% | -5.00 | lost |
Belgium win in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 5.63 | $5.00 | 5.63 | $23.15 | +13% | -5.00 | lost |
Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 | $5.00 | 4.34 | $16.70 | +94% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in France v Morocco · Match result @ 4.00 | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +18% | -5.00 | lost |
Morocco win in France v Morocco · Match result @ 6.53 | $5.00 | 6.53 | $27.65 | +32% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 5.00 | $5.00 | 5.00 | $20.00 | +48% | -5.00 | lost |
Egypt win in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 10.00 | $5.00 | 10.00 | $45.00 | +95% | -5.00 | lost |
Portugal win in Portugal v Spain · Match result @ 4.10 | $5.00 | 4.10 | $15.50 | +41% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Colombia v Ghana · Match result @ 4.60 | $5.00 | 4.60 | $18.00 | +183% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Cape Verde Islands · Match result @ 9.40 | $5.00 | 9.40 | $42.00 | +349% | +42.00 | won |
Canada win in Canada v Morocco · Match result @ 5.70 | $5.00 | 5.70 | $23.50 | +106% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Paraguay v France · Match result @ 7.86 | $5.00 | 7.86 | $34.30 | +1% | -5.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.