World Cup knockout chaos: longshots priced 4-10 where the sim still sees positive edge. Small stakes, big stories.
football · Match result · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-03 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in Colorado Rapids v CF Montreal · Match result @ 4.25 | $5.00 | 4.25 | $16.25 | +0% | — | pending |
Portland Timbers win in FC Dallas v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 4.00 | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +5% | — | pending |
CF Montreal win in Colorado Rapids v CF Montreal · Match result @ 4.60 | $5.00 | 4.60 | $18.00 | +5% | — | pending |
New York City FC win in Real Salt Lake v New York City FC · Match result @ 4.10 | $5.00 | 4.10 | $15.50 | +30% | — | pending |
Draw in Los Angeles FC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 5.40 | $5.00 | 5.40 | $22.00 | +8% | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in Los Angeles FC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 7.00 | $5.00 | 7.00 | $30.00 | +3% | — | pending |
Draw in Minnesota United FC v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00 | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +3% | — | pending |
FC Dallas win in Minnesota United FC v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00 | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +17% | — | pending |
Draw in Houston Dynamo v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 4.00 | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +7% | — | pending |
Real Salt Lake win in Houston Dynamo v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 4.50 | $5.00 | 4.50 | $17.50 | +32% | — | pending |
Draw in Philadelphia Union v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.52 | $5.00 | 4.52 | $17.60 | +2% | — | pending |
FC Cincinnati win in Philadelphia Union v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.50 | $5.00 | 4.50 | $17.50 | +22% | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in FC Dallas v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.75 | $5.00 | 6.75 | $28.75 | +3% | — | pending |
Draw in Philadelphia Union v CF Montreal · Match result @ 5.18 | $5.00 | 5.18 | $20.90 | +9% | — | pending |
CF Montreal win in Philadelphia Union v CF Montreal · Match result @ 6.60 | $5.00 | 6.60 | $28.00 | +8% | — | pending |
Draw in Colorado Rapids v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 4.00 | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +3% | — | pending |
Draw in Minnesota United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 4.30 | $5.00 | 4.30 | $16.50 | +0% | — | pending |
Orlando City SC win in Minnesota United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 4.07 | $5.00 | 4.07 | $15.35 | +7% | — | pending |
FC Cincinnati win in Nashville SC v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.20 | $5.00 | 4.20 | $16.00 | +4% | — | pending |
Draw in Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.20 | $5.00 | 4.20 | $16.00 | +2% | — | pending |
San Jose Earthquakes win in Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.75 | $5.00 | 4.75 | $18.75 | +35% | — | pending |
Draw in New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 4.10 | $5.00 | 4.10 | $15.50 | +4% | — | pending |
Draw in Atlanta United FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 4.38 | $5.00 | 4.38 | $16.90 | +0% | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in Atlanta United FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 4.60 | $5.00 | 4.60 | $18.00 | +11% | — | pending |
Draw in Orlando City SC v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 4.27 | $5.00 | 4.27 | $16.35 | +1% | — | pending |
Draw in Real Salt Lake v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00 | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +2% | — | pending |
FC Dallas win in Real Salt Lake v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00 | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +22% | — | pending |
Draw in Chicago Fire v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 4.85 | $5.00 | 4.85 | $19.25 | +9% | — | pending |
Portland Timbers win in Chicago Fire v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 5.25 | $5.00 | 5.25 | $21.25 | +51% | — | pending |
Draw in Real Salt Lake v Minnesota United FC · Match result @ 4.00 | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +6% | — | pending |
Draw in Colorado Rapids v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 4.85 | $5.00 | 4.85 | $19.25 | +3% | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in Colorado Rapids v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 5.75 | $5.00 | 5.75 | $23.75 | +16% | — | pending |
Minnesota United FC win in Real Salt Lake v Minnesota United FC · Match result @ 4.65 | $5.00 | 4.65 | $18.25 | +37% | — | pending |
Draw in Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 4.10 | $5.00 | 4.10 | $15.50 | +6% | — | pending |
Draw in Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders · Match result @ 4.11 | $5.00 | 4.11 | $15.55 | +6% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Colorado Rapids v Austin · Match result @ 4.16 | $5.00 | 4.16 | $15.80 | +1% | -5.00 | lost |
Austin win in Colorado Rapids v Austin · Match result @ 4.50 | $5.00 | 4.50 | $17.50 | +14% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Minnesota United FC v San Diego · Match result @ 4.00 | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +1% | +15.00 | won |
Draw in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 4.87 | $5.00 | 4.87 | $19.35 | +19% | -5.00 | lost |
Charlotte win in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 5.50 | $5.00 | 5.50 | $22.50 | +68% | -5.00 | lost |
Columbus Crew win in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Match result @ 4.75 | $5.00 | 4.75 | $18.75 | +7% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 4.26 | $5.00 | 4.26 | $16.30 | +6% | +16.30 | won |
Los Angeles FC win in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 4.00 | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +20% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Los Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 7.00 | $5.00 | 7.00 | $30.00 | +6% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Match result @ 4.10 | $5.00 | 4.10 | $15.50 | +7% | -5.00 | lost |
Austin win in Houston Dynamo v Austin · Match result @ 5.00 | $5.00 | 5.00 | $20.00 | +24% | -5.00 | lost |
FC Cincinnati win in Columbus Crew v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.10 | $5.00 | 4.10 | $15.50 | +12% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 5.00 | $5.00 | 5.00 | $20.00 | +2% | -5.00 | lost |
Orlando City SC win in San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 5.30 | $5.00 | 5.30 | $21.50 | +29% | +21.50 | won |
CF Montreal win in Nashville SC v CF Montreal · Match result @ 7.50 | $5.00 | 7.50 | $32.50 | +10% | -5.00 | lost |
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 4.00 | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +33% | +15.00 | won |
Draw in FC Cincinnati v Vancouver Whitecaps · Match result @ 4.22 | $5.00 | 4.22 | $16.10 | +0% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 4.30 | $5.00 | 4.30 | $16.50 | +3% | -5.00 | lost |
New York Red Bulls win in Philadelphia Union v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 4.50 | $5.00 | 4.50 | $17.50 | +8% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in France v England · Match result @ 4.07 | $5.00 | 4.07 | $15.35 | +8% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 5.02 | $5.00 | 5.02 | $20.10 | +19% | -5.00 | lost |
Portland Timbers win in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 6.00 | $5.00 | 6.00 | $25.00 | +17% | +25.00 | won |
Draw in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 5.20 | $5.00 | 5.20 | $21.00 | +13% | -5.00 | lost |
Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.80 | $5.00 | 6.80 | $29.00 | +46% | -5.00 | lost |
Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 5.90 | $5.00 | 5.90 | $24.51 | +37% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 4.10 | $5.00 | 4.10 | $15.50 | +29% | -5.00 | lost |
Belgium win in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 5.63 | $5.00 | 5.63 | $23.15 | +13% | -5.00 | lost |
Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 | $5.00 | 4.34 | $16.70 | +94% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in France v Morocco · Match result @ 4.00 | $5.00 | 4.00 | $15.00 | +18% | -5.00 | lost |
Morocco win in France v Morocco · Match result @ 6.53 | $5.00 | 6.53 | $27.65 | +32% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 5.00 | $5.00 | 5.00 | $20.00 | +48% | -5.00 | lost |
Egypt win in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 10.00 | $5.00 | 10.00 | $45.00 | +95% | -5.00 | lost |
Portugal win in Portugal v Spain · Match result @ 4.10 | $5.00 | 4.10 | $15.50 | +41% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Colombia v Ghana · Match result @ 4.60 | $5.00 | 4.60 | $18.00 | +183% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Cape Verde Islands · Match result @ 9.40 | $5.00 | 9.40 | $42.00 | +349% | +42.00 | won |
Canada win in Canada v Morocco · Match result @ 5.70 | $5.00 | 5.70 | $23.50 | +106% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Paraguay v France · Match result @ 7.86 | $5.00 | 7.86 | $34.30 | +1% | -5.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.