Nashville SC v CF Montreal

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 12:30 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Nashville SC win	66%	65%	1.44	fair
Draw	20%	20%	5.10	fair
CF Montreal win	14%	15%	7.50	value: +10%

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	61%	60%	1.55	fair
Under	39%	40%	2.52	fair

across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Yes	54%	54%	1.75	fair
No	46%	46%	2.07	fair

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
CF Montreal win	6.50	6.50	0.0%
Draw	5.10	4.92	-3.4%
Nashville SC win	1.37	1.40	+2.2%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Geodis Park