← Major League Soccer 2026 · Thu, Jul 23, 12:30 AM UTC · ref: M. De Oliveira
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in Nashville SC v CF Montreal · Match result @ 4.80 | Dutch cover | $2.08 | 4.80 | $7.90 | — | -2.08 | lost |
CF Montreal win in Nashville SC v CF Montreal · Match result @ 7.50 | Dutch cover | $17.92 | 7.50 | $116.48 | +10% | -17.92 | lost |
CF Montreal win in Nashville SC v CF Montreal · Match result @ 7.50 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 7.50 | $32.50 | +10% | -5.00 | lost |
Under in Nashville SC v CF Montreal · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.38 | $13.80 | +1% | +13.80 | won |
CF Montreal win in Nashville SC v CF Montreal · Match result @ 7.50 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 7.50 | $32.50 | +10% | -5.00 | lost |
CF Montreal win in Nashville SC v CF Montreal · Match result @ 7.50 | Portfolio | $1.92 | 7.50 | $12.48 | +5% | -1.92 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC win | 64% | 65% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 5.10 | value: +5% |
| CF Montreal win | 15% | 15% | 7.50 | value: +10% |
across 21 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 58% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 42% | 2.52 | value: +7% |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says |
|---|
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal win | 6.50 | 6.07 | -6.5% | |
| Draw | 5.10 | 4.40 | -13.7% | |
| Nashville SC win | 1.37 | 1.49 | +8.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
CF Montreal · 4-3-3 · Philippe Eullaffroy
Sebastian Breza · Dawid Bugaj · Jalen Neal · Brayan Vera · Luca Petrasso · Fabian Herbers · Matthew Longstaff · Victor Loturi · Hennadii Synchuk · Prince Owusu · Noah Streit
Nashville SC · 4-2-3-1 · Brian Callaghan
Brian Schwake · Josh Bauer · Jeisson Palacios · Maxwell Woledzi · Daniel Lovitz · Shakur Mohammed · Matthew Corcoran · Edvard Tagseth · Hany Mukhtar · Alex Muyl · Sam Surridge
confirmed lineups, captured ~1h before kickoff · tap a player for their record
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Surridge · Nashville SC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Sam Surridge · Nashville SC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Prince-Osei Owusu · CF Montreal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nashville SC | CF Montreal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 752.00 | 113.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) |
| venue | Geodis Park |
| Model says |
|---|
| Best price |
|---|
| Verdict |
|---|
| Yes | 54% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| No | 46% | 48% | 2.10 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Over 9.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 7 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under 4 | 50% | 1.88 |
| Over 4 | 50% | 1.89 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
| 5.60 |
| 9.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 4.67 |
| elo | 1609.17 | 1397.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.73 | 3.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | 1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.51 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.85 | — |
| league points | 36.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 25.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 5.02 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | 0.74 |
| solidity v1 | -0.22 | 0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.19 | 24.93 |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 1.84 |