Half-cover dutch: back the sim's 1x2 pick (edge >= 5%) AND the draw, draw stake sized to refund HALF the outlay on a draw. The 21-season backtest (exp #203) found full cover overpays for insurance (median $898) while half-cover beats straight outright: median $1,060 vs $995, worst season $87 vs $17.
football · Match result · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-06 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 5.02 | $1.99 | 5.02 | $8.00 | — | — | pending |
Portland Timbers win in Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 6.00 | $18.01 | 6.00 | $90.05 | +17% | — | pending |
Draw in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 5.20 | $1.92 | 5.20 | $8.06 | — | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in St. Louis City v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.80 | $18.08 | 6.80 | $104.86 | +46% | — | pending |
Draw in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Match result @ 3.84 | $2.60 | 3.84 | $7.38 | — | — | pending |
Toronto FC win in CF Montreal v Toronto FC · Match result @ 3.65 | $17.40 | 3.65 | $46.11 | +7% | — | pending |
Draw in England v Argentina · Match result @ 3.10 | $3.23 | 3.10 | $6.78 | — | -3.23 | lost |
England win in England v Argentina · Match result @ 2.78 | $16.77 | 2.78 | $29.85 | +31% | -16.77 | lost |
Draw in France v Spain · Match result @ 3.35 | $2.99 | 3.35 | $7.03 | — | -2.99 | lost |
France win in France v Spain · Match result @ 2.45 | $17.01 | 2.45 | $24.66 | +10% | -17.01 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 3.70 | $2.70 | 3.70 | $7.29 | — | +7.29 | won |
Switzerland win in Argentina v Switzerland · Match result @ 5.90 | $17.30 | 5.90 | $84.82 | +37% | -17.30 | lost |
Draw in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 4.10 | $2.44 | 4.10 | $7.56 | — | -2.44 | lost |
Belgium win in Spain v Belgium · Match result @ 5.63 | $17.56 | 5.63 | $81.30 | +13% | -17.56 | lost |
Draw in Norway v England · Match result @ 3.80 | $2.63 | 3.80 | $7.36 | — | +7.36 | won |
Norway win in Norway v England · Match result @ 4.34 | $17.37 | 4.34 | $58.02 | +94% | -17.37 | lost |
Draw in France v Morocco · Match result @ 4.00 | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | -2.50 | lost |
Morocco win in France v Morocco · Match result @ 6.53 | $17.50 | 6.53 | $96.78 | +32% | -17.50 | lost |
Draw in Switzerland v Colombia · Match result @ 3.18 | $6.29 | 3.18 | $13.71 | — | +13.71 | won |
Switzerland win in Switzerland v Colombia · Match result @ 3.65 | $13.71 | 3.65 | $36.33 | +56% | -13.71 | lost |
Draw in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 5.00 | $4.00 | 5.00 | $16.00 | — | -4.00 | lost |
Egypt win in Argentina v Egypt · Match result @ 10.00 | $16.00 | 10.00 | $144.00 | +95% | -16.00 | lost |
Draw in United States v Belgium · Match result @ 3.54 | $5.65 | 3.54 | $14.35 | — | -5.65 | lost |
United States win in United States v Belgium · Match result @ 2.78 | $14.35 | 2.78 | $25.54 | +43% | -14.35 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.