Half-cover dutch: back the sim's 1x2 pick (edge >= 5%) AND the draw, draw stake sized to refund HALF the outlay on a draw. The 21-season backtest (exp #203) found full cover overpays for insurance (median $898) while half-cover beats straight outright: median $1,060 vs $995, worst season $87 vs $17.
football · Match result · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-06 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.40 | $2.27 | 4.40 | $7.72 | — | — | pending |
San Jose Earthquakes win in Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.20 | $17.73 | 4.20 | $56.74 | +11% | — | pending |
Draw in FC Dallas v Colorado Rapids · Match result @ 3.85 | $2.60 | 3.85 | $7.41 | — | — | pending |
FC Dallas win in FC Dallas v Colorado Rapids · Match result @ 2.10 | $17.40 | 2.10 | $19.14 | +13% | — | pending |
Draw in FC Cincinnati v Nashville SC · Match result @ 3.86 | $2.59 | 3.86 | $7.41 | — | — | pending |
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Nashville SC · Match result @ 2.58 | $17.41 | 2.58 | $27.51 | +10% | — | pending |
Draw in Philadelphia Union v Toronto FC · Match result @ 5.20 | $1.92 | 5.20 | $8.06 | — | — | pending |
Toronto FC win in Philadelphia Union v Toronto FC · Match result @ 6.50 | $18.08 | 6.50 | $99.44 | +15% | — | pending |
Draw in Portland Timbers v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 4.22 | $2.37 | 4.22 | $7.63 | — | — | pending |
Houston Dynamo win in Portland Timbers v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 4.30 | $17.63 | 4.30 | $58.18 | +23% | — | pending |
Draw in Nashville SC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 4.75 | $2.11 | 4.75 | $7.91 | — | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in Nashville SC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 6.00 | $17.89 | 6.00 | $89.45 | +22% | — | pending |
Draw in San Jose Earthquakes v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 3.92 | $2.55 | 3.92 | $7.45 | — | — | pending |
San Jose Earthquakes win in San Jose Earthquakes v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 2.32 | $17.45 | 2.32 | $23.03 | +6% | — | pending |
Draw in FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 4.09 | $2.44 | 4.09 | $7.54 | — | — | pending |
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 2.50 | $17.56 | 2.50 | $26.34 | +16% | — | pending |
Draw in Sporting Kansas City v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.15 | $2.41 | 4.15 | $7.59 | — | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in Sporting Kansas City v FC Dallas · Match result @ 3.95 | $17.59 | 3.95 | $51.89 | +16% | — | pending |
Draw in New York City FC v CF Montreal · Match result @ 5.10 | $1.96 | 5.10 | $8.04 | — | — | pending |
CF Montreal win in New York City FC v CF Montreal · Match result @ 7.00 | $18.04 | 7.00 | $108.24 | +17% | — | pending |
Draw in Chicago Fire v New York City FC · Match result @ 4.00 | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | — | pending |
New York City FC win in Chicago Fire v New York City FC · Match result @ 4.20 | $17.50 | 4.20 | $56.00 | +37% | — | pending |
Draw in San Jose Earthquakes v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 4.10 | $2.44 | 4.10 | $7.56 | — | — | pending |
Portland Timbers win in San Jose Earthquakes v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 3.60 | $17.56 | 3.60 | $45.66 | +7% | — | pending |
Draw in Real Salt Lake v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.83 | $2.61 | 3.83 | $7.39 | — | — | pending |
Real Salt Lake win in Real Salt Lake v New England Revolution · Match result @ 2.38 | $17.39 | 2.38 | $24.00 | +20% | — | pending |
Draw in Nashville SC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 5.05 | $1.98 | 5.05 | $8.02 | — | — | pending |
Toronto FC win in Nashville SC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 6.75 | $18.02 | 6.75 | $103.61 | +9% | — | pending |
Draw in Houston Dynamo v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 4.75 | $2.11 | 4.75 | $7.91 | — | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in Houston Dynamo v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 6.40 | $17.89 | 6.40 | $96.61 | +13% | — | pending |
Draw in FC Dallas v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 3.76 | $2.66 | 3.76 | $7.34 | — | — | pending |
Los Angeles FC win in FC Dallas v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 2.90 | $17.34 | 2.90 | $32.95 | +19% | — | pending |
Draw in CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.00 | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | — | pending |
FC Cincinnati win in CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 2.45 | $17.50 | 2.45 | $25.38 | +7% | — | pending |
Draw in Atlanta United FC v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.61 | $2.77 | 3.61 | $7.23 | — | — | pending |
New York City FC win in Atlanta United FC v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.01 | $17.23 | 3.01 | $34.63 | +23% | — | pending |
Draw in Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 5.35 | $1.87 | 5.35 | $8.13 | — | — | pending |
Orlando City SC win in Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 6.50 | $18.13 | 6.50 | $99.71 | +55% | — | pending |
Draw in Portland Timbers v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 4.09 | $2.44 | 4.09 | $7.54 | — | — | pending |
Portland Timbers win in Portland Timbers v Atlanta United FC · Match result @ 2.12 | $17.56 | 2.12 | $19.67 | +20% | — | pending |
Draw in Sporting Kansas City v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 4.42 | $2.26 | 4.42 | $7.73 | — | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in Sporting Kansas City v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 4.80 | $17.74 | 4.80 | $67.41 | +34% | — | pending |
Draw in Houston Dynamo v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.10 | $2.44 | 4.10 | $7.56 | — | — | pending |
FC Cincinnati win in Houston Dynamo v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 3.65 | $17.56 | 3.65 | $46.53 | +17% | — | pending |
Draw in New England Revolution v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 4.20 | $2.38 | 4.20 | $7.62 | — | — | pending |
Orlando City SC win in New England Revolution v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 3.80 | $17.62 | 3.80 | $49.34 | +21% | — | pending |
Draw in San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 3.60 | $2.78 | 3.60 | $7.23 | — | — | pending |
San Jose Earthquakes win in San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 2.42 | $17.22 | 2.42 | $24.45 | +12% | — | pending |
Draw in Colorado Rapids v CF Montreal · Match result @ 4.25 | $2.35 | 4.25 | $7.64 | — | — | pending |
CF Montreal win in Colorado Rapids v CF Montreal · Match result @ 4.80 | $17.65 | 4.80 | $67.07 | +9% | — | pending |
Draw in FC Dallas v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 4.29 | $2.33 | 4.29 | $7.67 | — | — | pending |
Portland Timbers win in FC Dallas v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 4.00 | $17.67 | 4.00 | $53.01 | +5% | — | pending |
Draw in Real Salt Lake v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.70 | $2.70 | 3.70 | $7.29 | — | — | pending |
New York City FC win in Real Salt Lake v New York City FC · Match result @ 4.10 | $17.30 | 4.10 | $53.63 | +30% | — | pending |
Draw in Orlando City SC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 4.10 | $2.44 | 4.10 | $7.56 | — | — | pending |
Orlando City SC win in Orlando City SC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 1.91 | $17.56 | 1.91 | $15.98 | +7% | — | pending |
Draw in Minnesota United FC v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00 | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | — | pending |
FC Dallas win in Minnesota United FC v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00 | $17.50 | 4.00 | $52.50 | +17% | — | pending |
Draw in Houston Dynamo v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 4.00 | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | — | pending |
Real Salt Lake win in Houston Dynamo v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 4.50 | $17.50 | 4.50 | $61.25 | +32% | — | pending |
Draw in Atlanta United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 4.00 | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | — | pending |
Orlando City SC win in Atlanta United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 3.20 | $17.50 | 3.20 | $38.50 | +18% | — | pending |
Draw in Philadelphia Union v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.52 | $2.21 | 4.52 | $7.78 | — | — | pending |
FC Cincinnati win in Philadelphia Union v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.50 | $17.79 | 4.50 | $62.27 | +22% | — | pending |
Draw in Real Salt Lake v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 3.70 | $2.70 | 3.70 | $7.29 | — | — | pending |
Los Angeles FC win in Real Salt Lake v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 2.60 | $17.30 | 2.60 | $27.68 | +11% | — | pending |
Draw in Toronto FC v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 3.80 | $2.63 | 3.80 | $7.36 | — | — | pending |
Toronto FC win in Toronto FC v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.95 | $17.37 | 2.95 | $33.87 | +6% | — | pending |
Draw in Philadelphia Union v CF Montreal · Match result @ 5.18 | $1.93 | 5.18 | $8.07 | — | — | pending |
CF Montreal win in Philadelphia Union v CF Montreal · Match result @ 6.60 | $18.07 | 6.60 | $101.19 | +8% | — | pending |
Draw in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Match result @ 3.60 | $2.78 | 3.60 | $7.23 | — | — | pending |
New York City FC win in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Match result @ 2.61 | $17.22 | 2.61 | $27.72 | +8% | — | pending |
Draw in Minnesota United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 4.30 | $2.33 | 4.30 | $7.69 | — | — | pending |
Orlando City SC win in Minnesota United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 4.07 | $17.67 | 4.07 | $54.25 | +7% | — | pending |
Draw in Colorado Rapids v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 3.80 | $2.63 | 3.80 | $7.36 | — | — | pending |
Real Salt Lake win in Colorado Rapids v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 3.40 | $17.37 | 3.40 | $41.69 | +12% | — | pending |
Draw in Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.20 | $2.38 | 4.20 | $7.62 | — | — | pending |
San Jose Earthquakes win in Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.75 | $17.62 | 4.75 | $66.08 | +35% | — | pending |
Draw in DC United v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 3.80 | $2.63 | 3.80 | $7.36 | — | — | pending |
Los Angeles FC win in DC United v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 2.05 | $17.37 | 2.05 | $18.24 | +16% | — | pending |
Draw in New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 4.10 | $2.44 | 4.10 | $7.56 | — | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 3.05 | $17.56 | 3.05 | $36.00 | +18% | — | pending |
Draw in Toronto FC v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.62 | $2.76 | 3.62 | $7.23 | — | — | pending |
New York City FC win in Toronto FC v New York City FC · Match result @ 2.70 | $17.24 | 2.70 | $29.31 | +10% | — | pending |
Draw in New England Revolution v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.70 | $2.70 | 3.70 | $7.29 | — | — | pending |
New York City FC win in New England Revolution v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.08 | $17.30 | 3.08 | $35.98 | +11% | — | pending |
Draw in Atlanta United FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 4.30 | $2.33 | 4.30 | $7.69 | — | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in Atlanta United FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 4.60 | $17.67 | 4.60 | $63.61 | +11% | — | pending |
Draw in New York Red Bulls v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 4.09 | $2.44 | 4.09 | $7.54 | — | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.88 | $17.56 | 2.88 | $33.01 | +27% | — | pending |
Draw in Orlando City SC v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 4.27 | $2.34 | 4.27 | $7.65 | — | — | pending |
Real Salt Lake win in Orlando City SC v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 3.55 | $17.66 | 3.55 | $45.03 | +9% | — | pending |
Draw in New York Red Bulls v Nashville SC · Match result @ 3.85 | $2.60 | 3.85 | $7.41 | — | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Nashville SC · Match result @ 3.00 | $17.40 | 3.00 | $34.80 | +6% | — | pending |
Draw in Colorado Rapids v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 3.60 | $2.78 | 3.60 | $7.23 | — | — | pending |
Los Angeles FC win in Colorado Rapids v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 2.50 | $17.22 | 2.50 | $25.83 | +20% | — | pending |
Draw in Real Salt Lake v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00 | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | — | pending |
FC Dallas win in Real Salt Lake v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00 | $17.50 | 4.00 | $52.50 | +22% | — | pending |
Draw in FC Cincinnati v New York City FC · Match result @ 4.10 | $2.44 | 4.10 | $7.56 | — | — | pending |
New York City FC win in FC Cincinnati v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.45 | $17.56 | 3.45 | $43.02 | +6% | — | pending |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.