Half-cover dutch: back the sim's 1x2 pick (edge >= 5%) AND the draw, draw stake sized to refund HALF the outlay on a draw. The 21-season backtest (exp #203) found full cover overpays for insurance (median $898) while half-cover beats straight outright: median $1,060 vs $995, worst season $87 vs $17.
football · Match result · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-06 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 3.60 | $2.78 | 3.60 | $7.23 | — | — | pending |
San Jose Earthquakes win in San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 2.42 | $17.22 | 2.42 | $24.45 | +12% | — | pending |
Draw in Colorado Rapids v CF Montreal · Match result @ 4.25 | $2.35 | 4.25 | $7.64 | — | — | pending |
CF Montreal win in Colorado Rapids v CF Montreal · Match result @ 4.80 | $17.65 | 4.80 | $67.07 | +9% | — | pending |
Draw in FC Dallas v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 4.29 | $2.33 | 4.29 | $7.67 | — | — | pending |
Portland Timbers win in FC Dallas v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 4.00 | $17.67 | 4.00 | $53.01 | +5% | — | pending |
Draw in Real Salt Lake v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.70 | $2.70 | 3.70 | $7.29 | — | — | pending |
New York City FC win in Real Salt Lake v New York City FC · Match result @ 4.10 | $17.30 | 4.10 | $53.63 | +30% | — | pending |
Draw in Orlando City SC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 4.10 | $2.44 | 4.10 | $7.56 | — | — | pending |
Orlando City SC win in Orlando City SC v Toronto FC · Match result @ 1.91 | $17.56 | 1.91 | $15.98 | +7% | — | pending |
Draw in Minnesota United FC v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00 | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | — | pending |
FC Dallas win in Minnesota United FC v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00 | $17.50 | 4.00 | $52.50 | +17% | — | pending |
Draw in Houston Dynamo v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 4.00 | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | — | pending |
Real Salt Lake win in Houston Dynamo v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 4.50 | $17.50 | 4.50 | $61.25 | +32% | — | pending |
Draw in Atlanta United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 4.00 | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | — | pending |
Orlando City SC win in Atlanta United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 3.20 | $17.50 | 3.20 | $38.50 | +18% | — | pending |
Draw in Philadelphia Union v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.52 | $2.21 | 4.52 | $7.78 | — | — | pending |
FC Cincinnati win in Philadelphia Union v FC Cincinnati · Match result @ 4.50 | $17.79 | 4.50 | $62.27 | +22% | — | pending |
Draw in Real Salt Lake v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 3.70 | $2.70 | 3.70 | $7.29 | — | — | pending |
Los Angeles FC win in Real Salt Lake v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 2.60 | $17.30 | 2.60 | $27.68 | +11% | — | pending |
Draw in Toronto FC v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 3.80 | $2.63 | 3.80 | $7.36 | — | — | pending |
Toronto FC win in Toronto FC v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.95 | $17.37 | 2.95 | $33.87 | +6% | — | pending |
Draw in Philadelphia Union v CF Montreal · Match result @ 5.18 | $1.93 | 5.18 | $8.07 | — | — | pending |
CF Montreal win in Philadelphia Union v CF Montreal · Match result @ 6.60 | $18.07 | 6.60 | $101.19 | +8% | — | pending |
Draw in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Match result @ 3.60 | $2.78 | 3.60 | $7.23 | — | — | pending |
New York City FC win in New York City FC v Nashville SC · Match result @ 2.61 | $17.22 | 2.61 | $27.72 | +8% | — | pending |
Draw in Minnesota United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 4.30 | $2.33 | 4.30 | $7.69 | — | — | pending |
Orlando City SC win in Minnesota United FC v Orlando City SC · Match result @ 4.07 | $17.67 | 4.07 | $54.25 | +7% | — | pending |
Draw in Colorado Rapids v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 3.80 | $2.63 | 3.80 | $7.36 | — | — | pending |
Real Salt Lake win in Colorado Rapids v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 3.40 | $17.37 | 3.40 | $41.69 | +12% | — | pending |
Draw in Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.20 | $2.38 | 4.20 | $7.62 | — | — | pending |
San Jose Earthquakes win in Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.75 | $17.62 | 4.75 | $66.08 | +35% | — | pending |
Draw in DC United v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 3.80 | $2.63 | 3.80 | $7.36 | — | — | pending |
Los Angeles FC win in DC United v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 2.05 | $17.37 | 2.05 | $18.24 | +16% | — | pending |
Draw in New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 4.10 | $2.44 | 4.10 | $7.56 | — | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 3.05 | $17.56 | 3.05 | $36.00 | +18% | — | pending |
Draw in Toronto FC v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.62 | $2.76 | 3.62 | $7.23 | — | — | pending |
New York City FC win in Toronto FC v New York City FC · Match result @ 2.70 | $17.24 | 2.70 | $29.31 | +10% | — | pending |
Draw in New England Revolution v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.70 | $2.70 | 3.70 | $7.29 | — | — | pending |
New York City FC win in New England Revolution v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.08 | $17.30 | 3.08 | $35.98 | +11% | — | pending |
Draw in Atlanta United FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 4.30 | $2.33 | 4.30 | $7.69 | — | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in Atlanta United FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 4.60 | $17.67 | 4.60 | $63.61 | +11% | — | pending |
Draw in New York Red Bulls v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 4.09 | $2.44 | 4.09 | $7.54 | — | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.88 | $17.56 | 2.88 | $33.01 | +27% | — | pending |
Draw in Orlando City SC v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 4.27 | $2.34 | 4.27 | $7.65 | — | — | pending |
Real Salt Lake win in Orlando City SC v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 3.55 | $17.66 | 3.55 | $45.03 | +9% | — | pending |
Draw in New York Red Bulls v Nashville SC · Match result @ 3.85 | $2.60 | 3.85 | $7.41 | — | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Nashville SC · Match result @ 3.00 | $17.40 | 3.00 | $34.80 | +6% | — | pending |
Draw in Colorado Rapids v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 3.60 | $2.78 | 3.60 | $7.23 | — | — | pending |
Los Angeles FC win in Colorado Rapids v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 2.50 | $17.22 | 2.50 | $25.83 | +20% | — | pending |
Draw in Real Salt Lake v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00 | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | — | pending |
FC Dallas win in Real Salt Lake v FC Dallas · Match result @ 4.00 | $17.50 | 4.00 | $52.50 | +22% | — | pending |
Draw in FC Cincinnati v New York City FC · Match result @ 4.10 | $2.44 | 4.10 | $7.56 | — | — | pending |
New York City FC win in FC Cincinnati v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.45 | $17.56 | 3.45 | $43.02 | +6% | — | pending |
Draw in DC United v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.60 | $2.78 | 3.60 | $7.23 | — | — | pending |
New England Revolution win in DC United v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.25 | $17.22 | 3.25 | $38.74 | +18% | — | pending |
Draw in Orlando City SC v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 4.00 | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | — | pending |
Orlando City SC win in Orlando City SC v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.87 | $17.50 | 2.87 | $32.73 | +36% | — | pending |
Draw in New York City FC v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 3.80 | $2.63 | 3.80 | $7.36 | — | — | pending |
New York City FC win in New York City FC v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 2.37 | $17.37 | 2.37 | $23.80 | +7% | — | pending |
Draw in Chicago Fire v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 4.85 | $2.06 | 4.85 | $7.93 | — | — | pending |
Portland Timbers win in Chicago Fire v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 5.25 | $17.94 | 5.25 | $76.25 | +51% | — | pending |
Draw in Colorado Rapids v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 4.85 | $2.06 | 4.85 | $7.93 | — | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in Colorado Rapids v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 5.75 | $17.94 | 5.75 | $85.22 | +16% | — | pending |
Draw in Real Salt Lake v Minnesota United FC · Match result @ 3.90 | $2.56 | 3.90 | $7.42 | — | — | pending |
Minnesota United FC win in Real Salt Lake v Minnesota United FC · Match result @ 4.65 | $17.44 | 4.65 | $63.66 | +37% | — | pending |
Draw in CF Montreal v DC United · Match result @ 3.60 | $2.78 | 3.60 | $7.23 | — | — | pending |
CF Montreal win in CF Montreal v DC United · Match result @ 2.25 | $17.22 | 2.25 | $21.52 | +6% | — | pending |
Draw in Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 4.10 | $2.44 | 4.10 | $7.56 | — | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 3.54 | $17.56 | 3.54 | $44.60 | +21% | — | pending |
Draw in Toronto FC v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.65 | $2.74 | 3.65 | $7.26 | — | — | pending |
New England Revolution win in Toronto FC v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.20 | $17.26 | 3.20 | $37.97 | +8% | — | pending |
Draw in New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 3.60 | $2.78 | 3.60 | $7.23 | — | — | pending |
New England Revolution win in New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 2.50 | $17.22 | 2.50 | $25.83 | +5% | — | pending |
Draw in Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders · Match result @ 4.11 | $2.43 | 4.11 | $7.56 | — | -2.43 | lost |
Seattle Sounders win in Portland Timbers v Seattle Sounders · Match result @ 3.10 | $17.57 | 3.10 | $36.90 | +6% | -17.57 | lost |
Draw in St. Louis City v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 3.91 | $2.56 | 3.91 | $7.45 | — | +7.45 | won |
Real Salt Lake win in St. Louis City v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 3.50 | $17.44 | 3.50 | $43.60 | +12% | -17.44 | lost |
Draw in Colorado Rapids v Austin · Match result @ 4.16 | $2.40 | 4.16 | $7.58 | — | -2.40 | lost |
Austin win in Colorado Rapids v Austin · Match result @ 4.50 | $17.60 | 4.50 | $61.60 | +14% | -17.60 | lost |
Draw in Minnesota United FC v San Diego · Match result @ 4.00 | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | +7.50 | won |
San Diego win in Minnesota United FC v San Diego · Match result @ 3.50 | $17.50 | 3.50 | $43.75 | +22% | -17.50 | lost |
Draw in Sporting Kansas City v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 3.75 | $2.67 | 3.75 | $7.34 | — | -2.67 | lost |
Sporting Kansas City win in Sporting Kansas City v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 3.36 | $17.33 | 3.36 | $40.90 | +16% | -17.33 | lost |
Draw in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 4.87 | $2.05 | 4.87 | $7.93 | — | -2.05 | lost |
Charlotte win in Chicago Fire v Charlotte · Match result @ 5.50 | $17.95 | 5.50 | $80.77 | +68% | -17.95 | lost |
Draw in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Match result @ 4.40 | $2.27 | 4.40 | $7.72 | — | +7.72 | won |
Columbus Crew win in Inter Miami v Columbus Crew · Match result @ 4.75 | $17.73 | 4.75 | $66.49 | +7% | -17.73 | lost |
Draw in FC Cincinnati v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.30 | $2.33 | 4.30 | $7.69 | — | -2.33 | lost |
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 2.02 | $17.67 | 2.02 | $18.02 | +6% | +18.02 | won |
Draw in DC United v Nashville SC · Match result @ 3.50 | $2.86 | 3.50 | $7.15 | — | +7.15 | won |
Nashville SC win in DC United v Nashville SC · Match result @ 2.39 | $17.14 | 2.39 | $23.82 | +13% | -17.14 | lost |
Draw in CF Montreal v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.60 | $2.78 | 3.60 | $7.23 | — | +7.23 | won |
New England Revolution win in CF Montreal v New England Revolution · Match result @ 3.06 | $17.22 | 3.06 | $35.47 | +9% | -17.22 | lost |
Draw in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 4.26 | $2.35 | 4.26 | $7.66 | — | +7.66 | won |
Los Angeles FC win in Vancouver Whitecaps v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 4.00 | $17.65 | 4.00 | $52.95 | +20% | -17.65 | lost |
Draw in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 4.00 | $2.50 | 4.00 | $7.50 | — | -2.50 | lost |
Portland Timbers win in Portland Timbers v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 2.48 | $17.50 | 2.48 | $25.90 | +11% | +25.90 | won |
Draw in Los Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 7.00 | $1.43 | 7.00 | $8.58 | — | -1.43 | lost |
Sporting Kansas City win in Los Angeles FC v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 12.00 | $18.57 | 12.00 | $204.27 | +17% | -18.57 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.