San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 02:30 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
San Jose Earthquakes win	39%	46%	2.48	value: +15%
Houston Dynamo win	35%	29%	2.95	fair
Draw	26%	24%	3.75	fair

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Model says	Best price	Verdict
Over	57%	59%	1.64	fair
Under	43%	41%	2.33	fair

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

Outcome	First	Now	Move
Houston Dynamo win	2.50	2.80	+12.0%
Draw	3.70	3.50	-5.4%
San Jose Earthquakes win	2.48	2.38	-4.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

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