← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 02:30 AM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 3.60 | Dutch cover | $2.78 | 3.60 | $7.23 | — | — | pending |
San Jose Earthquakes win in San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 2.42 | Dutch cover | $17.22 | 2.42 | $24.45 | +12% | — | pending |
San Jose Earthquakes win in San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo · Match result @ 2.42 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 2.42 | $7.10 | +12% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes win | 45% | 46% | 2.48 | value: +15% |
| Houston Dynamo win | 31% | 29% | 501.00 | value: +14530% |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 23.00 | value: +460% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 59% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 41% | 2.35 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo win | 2.50 | 201.00 | +7940.0% | |
| Draw | 3.70 | 16.00 | +332.4% | |
| San Jose Earthquakes win | 2.48 | 1.02 | -58.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | PayPal Park |