← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Aug 23, 08:30 PM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw in New England Revolution v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.70 | Dutch cover | $2.70 | 3.70 | $7.29 | — | — | pending |
New York City FC win in New England Revolution v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.08 | Dutch cover | $17.30 | 3.08 | $35.98 | +11% | — | pending |
New York City FC win in New England Revolution v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.08 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 3.08 | $10.40 | +11% | — | pending |
New England Revolution win in New England Revolution v New York City FC · Match result @ 2.33 | Steam chaser | $5.00 | 2.33 | $6.65 | — | — | pending |
Under in New England Revolution v New York City FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.12 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.12 | $11.20 | +6% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution win | 39% | 37% | 2.65 | fair |
| New York City FC win | 35% | 36% | 3.08 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 50% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 50% | 2.12 | value: +6% |
across 5 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC win | 2.63 | 2.95 | +12.2% | |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.65 | +5.8% | |
| New England Revolution win | 2.50 | 2.24 | -10.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | Gillette Stadium |