Line-movement study (78k selections, 20yr): big steam (4+ prob-pt moves) is the one bucket the close doesn't fully absorb (+2.3pts residual), concentrated in soft leagues (+5.9% EL2) and away sides (+6.4%). Hypothesis-grade (CI spans zero) — this forward trial is the judge. Bets any selection whose consensus implied prob rose 4+ pts across our own daily snapshots.
football · Match result · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-03 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
| Bet | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Salt Lake win in Real Salt Lake v New York City FC · Match result @ 1.97 | $5.00 | 1.97 | $4.85 | — | — | pending |
Los Angeles FC win in Los Angeles FC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 1.43 | $5.00 | 1.43 | $2.15 | — | — | pending |
Minnesota United FC win in Portland Timbers v Minnesota United FC · Match result @ 3.15 | $5.00 | 3.15 | $10.75 | — | — | pending |
Los Angeles FC win in Real Salt Lake v Los Angeles FC · Match result @ 2.45 | $5.00 | 2.45 | $7.25 | — | — | pending |
Houston Dynamo win in Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 1.68 | $5.00 | 1.68 | $3.40 | — | — | pending |
Colorado Rapids win in Colorado Rapids v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 2.05 | $5.00 | 2.05 | $5.25 | — | — | pending |
New England Revolution win in New England Revolution v New York City FC · Match result @ 2.33 | $5.00 | 2.33 | $6.65 | — | — | pending |
Portland Timbers win in Los Angeles FC v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 5.14 | $5.00 | 5.14 | $20.70 | — | — | pending |
Minnesota United FC win in San Jose Earthquakes v Minnesota United FC · Match result @ 3.10 | $5.00 | 3.10 | $10.50 | — | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.88 | $5.00 | 2.88 | $9.40 | — | — | pending |
Orlando City SC win in Orlando City SC v Real Salt Lake · Match result @ 1.92 | $5.00 | 1.92 | $4.60 | — | — | pending |
Orlando City SC win in Orlando City SC v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.87 | $5.00 | 2.87 | $9.35 | — | — | pending |
Chicago Fire win in Chicago Fire v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 1.53 | $5.00 | 1.53 | $2.65 | — | — | pending |
Philadelphia Union win in New York City FC v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 3.00 | $5.00 | 3.00 | $10.00 | — | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls · Match result @ 3.15 | $5.00 | 3.15 | $10.75 | — | — | pending |
Toronto FC win in Toronto FC v New England Revolution · Match result @ 2.20 | $5.00 | 2.20 | $6.00 | — | — | pending |
Sporting Kansas City win in Colorado Rapids v Sporting Kansas City · Match result @ 5.75 | $5.00 | 5.75 | $23.75 | — | — | pending |
Egnatia Rrogozhinë win in Shamrock Rovers v Egnatia Rrogozhinë · Match result @ 4.10 | $5.00 | 4.10 | $15.50 | — | — | pending |
Club Queretaro win in Club Queretaro v Tigres UANL · Match result @ 3.90 | $5.00 | 3.90 | $14.50 | — | +14.50 | won |
Monterrey win in Necaxa v Monterrey · Match result @ 2.27 | $5.00 | 2.27 | $6.35 | — | -5.00 | lost |
Guadalajara Chivas win in Guadalajara Chivas v FC Juarez · Match result @ 1.50 | $5.00 | 1.50 | $2.50 | — | +2.50 | won |
Philadelphia Union win in Philadelphia Union v Seattle Sounders · Match result @ 2.09 | $5.00 | 2.09 | $5.45 | — | +5.45 | won |
Santos FC win in Santos FC v Chapecoense AF · Match result @ 1.44 | $5.00 | 1.44 | $2.20 | — | -5.00 | lost |
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.