Line-movement study (78k selections, 20yr): big steam (4+ prob-pt moves) is the one bucket the close doesn't fully absorb (+2.3pts residual), concentrated in soft leagues (+5.9% EL2) and away sides (+6.4%). Hypothesis-grade (CI spans zero) — this forward trial is the judge. Bets any selection whose consensus implied prob rose 4+ pts across our own daily snapshots.
football · Match result · status: live · betting forward from 2026-07-03 · same $1000 start as every other strategy
No bets yet — it will bet automatically when its conditions are met.
"Model edge" = model probability × odds − 1 at the moment of betting: the profit the model expected per $1. Positive edge can still lose (single bets usually do) — the question is whether edges are positive on average AND the model's probabilities are honest.