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FC Dallas v Portland Timbers

← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Sep 13, 12:30 AM UTC · scheduled

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
FC Dallas win52%51%1.93fair
Portland Timbers win25%26%4.00value: +5%
Draw23%23%4.30fair

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Portland Timbers win3.503.80+8.6%
Draw4.004.000.0%
FC Dallas win1.851.81-2.2%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueToyota Stadium