← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Jose Earthquakes win in Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.40 | Portfolio | $2.71 | 4.40 | $9.21 | +7% | -2.71 | lost |
leg 1: Under in DC United v New York City FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.28 won leg 2: Under in Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.00 lost | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 6.84 | $29.20 | +30% | -5.00 | lost |
Under in Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.00 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 3.00 | $20.00 | +18% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Draw in Philadelphia Union v Toronto FC · Match result @ 5.20 lost leg 2: FC Dallas win in FC Dallas v Colorado Rapids · Match result @ 2.10 won leg 3: San Jose Earthquakes win in Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.20 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 45.86 | $89.73 | +50% | -2.00 | lost |
Draw in Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.40 | Dutch cover | $2.27 | 4.40 | $7.72 | — | -2.27 | lost |
San Jose Earthquakes win in Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.20 | Dutch cover | $17.73 | 4.20 | $56.74 | +11% | -17.73 | lost |
San Jose Earthquakes win in Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.20 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 4.20 | $16.00 | +11% | -5.00 | lost |
Draw in Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.40 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.40 | $17.00 | +4% | -5.00 | lost |
San Jose Earthquakes win in Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.20 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.20 | $16.00 | +11% | -5.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC win | 54% | 50% | 1.83 | fair |
| San Jose Earthquakes win | 23% | 26% | 4.40 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.43 | value: +4% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 61% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 39% | 3.00 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes win | 3.55 | 4.10 | +15.5% | |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.20 | +2.4% | |
| Minnesota United FC win | 1.82 | 1.71 | -6.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Minnesota United FC | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 280.00 | 676.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1511.64 | 1493.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.30 | -2.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| venue | Allianz Field |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| league points | 41.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 7.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.58 |
| squad age | 27.93 | 26.83 |
| state index | 0.47 | -0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |