← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Nov 7, 09:00 PM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Under in DC United v New York City FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.28 leg 2: Under in Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 3.00 | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 6.84 | $29.20 | +30% | — | pending |
Under in DC United v New York City FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.28 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.28 | $12.80 | +10% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC win | 42% | 44% | 2.40 | value: +6% |
| DC United win | 32% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.66 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 52% | 1.71 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 48% | 2.33 | value: +12% |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC win | 2.27 | 2.26 | -0.7% | |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.0% | |
| DC United win | 2.86 | 3.00 | +4.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | Audi Field |