← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Aug 22, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.88 leg 2: Chicago Cubs win in Seattle Mariners v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 leg 3: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 12.39 | $22.78 | +50% | — | pending |
Draw in New York Red Bulls v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 4.09 | Dutch cover | $2.44 | 4.09 | $7.54 | — | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.88 | Dutch cover | $17.56 | 2.88 | $33.01 | +27% | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.88 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 2.88 | $9.40 | +27% | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.88 | Steam chaser | $5.00 | 2.88 | $9.40 | — | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.88 | Portfolio | $16.54 | 2.88 | $31.10 | +13% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire win | 44% | 32% | 2.42 | fair |
| New York Red Bulls win | 32% | 44% | 3.35 | value: +48% |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.20 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire win | 1.93 | 2.36 | +22.3% | |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.90 | 0.0% | |
| New York Red Bulls win | 3.35 | 2.67 | -20.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | Sports Illustrated Stadium |