← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 22, 11:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Shane McClanahan (ERA 3.25, WHIP 1.12) · home: Brandon Young (ERA 3.52, WHIP 1.35)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.88 leg 2: Chicago Cubs win in Seattle Mariners v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 leg 3: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 12.39 | $22.78 | +50% | — | pending |
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.14 | $11.40 | +7% | +11.40 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 55% | 1.80 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 45% | 2.18 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.72 | 1.76 | +2.6% | |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 2.05 | 2.10 | +2.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1496.83 | 1524.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.22 | -8.67 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.30 |