← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 22, 11:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: David Peterson (ERA 5.29, WHIP 1.53) · home: Kade Anderson (ERA undefined, WHIP undefined)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Chicago Fire · Match result @ 2.88 leg 2: Chicago Cubs win in Seattle Mariners v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 leg 3: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 12.39 | $22.78 | +50% | — | pending |
Chicago Cubs win in Seattle Mariners v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.01 | $10.10 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 53% | 1.90 |
| Chicago Cubs win | 47% | 2.14 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 2.09 | 1.97 | -5.9% | |
| Seattle Mariners win | 1.73 | 1.83 | +5.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Seattle Mariners | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Seattle Mariners | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1489.08 | 1549.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.71 | -8.45 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 5.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.70 |