← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Oct 31, 06:00 PM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 2.50 | Portfolio | $5.85 | 2.50 | $8.77 | +6% | — | pending |
leg 1: CF Montreal win in New York City FC v CF Montreal · Match result @ 7.00 leg 2: Sporting Kansas City win in Sporting Kansas City v FC Dallas · Match result @ 3.95 leg 3: FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 2.50 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 69.13 | $136.25 | +58% | — | pending |
Draw in FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 4.09 | Dutch cover | $2.44 | 4.09 | $7.54 | — | — | pending |
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 2.50 | Dutch cover | $17.56 | 2.50 | $26.34 | +16% | — | pending |
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 2.50 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 2.50 | $7.50 | +16% | — | pending |
FC Cincinnati win in FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 2.50 | Steam chaser | $5.00 | 2.50 | $7.50 | — | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union win | 40% | 31% | 2.75 | fair |
| FC Cincinnati win | 37% | 46% | 3.15 | value: +46% |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.20 | fair |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union win | 1.97 | 2.60 | +32.0% | |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.90 | -2.5% | |
| FC Cincinnati win | 3.15 | 2.40 | -23.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | TQL Stadium |