← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Aug 29, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Draw in New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 4.10 leg 2: San Jose Earthquakes win in Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.75 | WC parlay | $5.00 | 19.48 | $92.38 | +41% | — | pending |
leg 1: Draw in New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 4.10 leg 2: San Jose Earthquakes win in Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.75 | WC parlay | $5.00 | 19.48 | $92.38 | +41% | — | pending |
leg 1: San Jose Earthquakes win in Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.75 leg 2: Under in Toronto FC v New York City FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.18 leg 3: New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 3.05 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 31.58 | $61.17 | +93% | — | pending |
Draw in New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 4.10 | Dutch cover | $2.44 | 4.10 | $7.56 | — | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 3.05 | Dutch cover | $17.56 | 3.05 | $36.00 | +18% | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 3.05 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 3.05 | $10.25 | +18% | — | pending |
Draw in New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 4.10 | WC upset hunter | $5.00 | 4.10 | $15.50 | +4% | — | pending |
New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 3.05 | Portfolio | $7.78 | 3.05 | $15.95 | +7% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union win | 44% | 36% | 2.20 | fair |
| New York Red Bulls win | 32% | 39% | 3.11 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.10 | value: +5% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union win | 2.14 | 2.15 | +0.5% | |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.95 | +2.6% | |
| New York Red Bulls win | 2.88 | 2.91 | +1.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | Sports Illustrated Stadium |