← Major League Soccer 2026 · Sat, Aug 29, 11:30 PM UTC · scheduled
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in Tampa Bay Rays v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 lost leg 2: New York City FC win in Toronto FC v New York City FC · Match result @ 2.77 leg 3: Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 13.42 | $24.84 | +44% | — | pending |
New York City FC win in Toronto FC v New York City FC · Match result @ 2.77 | Mls sim value | $5.00 | 2.77 | $8.85 | +13% | — | pending |
leg 1: Under in Toronto FC v New York City FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.18 leg 2: Under in Colorado Rapids v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 5.19 | $20.94 | +32% | — | pending |
leg 1: Under in Toronto FC v New York City FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.18 leg 2: Under in Colorado Rapids v Real Salt Lake · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 | Simple parlay | $5.00 | 5.19 | $20.94 | +32% | — | pending |
leg 1: San Jose Earthquakes win in Houston Dynamo v San Jose Earthquakes · Match result @ 4.75 leg 2: Under in Toronto FC v New York City FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.18 leg 3: New York Red Bulls win in New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union · Match result @ 3.05 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 31.58 | $61.17 | +93% | — | pending |
Draw in Toronto FC v New York City FC · Match result @ 3.62 | Dutch cover | $2.76 | 3.62 | $7.23 | — | — | pending |
New York City FC win in Toronto FC v New York City FC · Match result @ 2.70 | Dutch cover | $17.24 | 2.70 | $29.31 | +10% | — | pending |
Under in Toronto FC v New York City FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.18 | WC KO unders | $10.00 | 2.18 | $11.80 | +21% | — | pending |
Under in Toronto FC v New York City FC · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.18 | Portfolio | $14.59 | 2.18 | $17.22 | +8% | — | pending |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC win | 38% | 31% | 2.60 | fair |
| New York City FC win | 36% | 41% | 2.85 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | value: +4% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 44% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 56% | 2.33 | value: +29% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC win | 2.85 | 2.66 | -6.7% | |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.60 | +2.9% | |
| Toronto FC win | 2.30 | 2.45 | +6.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| venue | BMO Field |