Tampa Bay Rays 5–4 San Diego Padres

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 30, 05:40 PM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
San Diego Padres win in Tampa Bay Rays v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.50	Portfolio	$7.34	2.50	$11.01	+5%	-7.34	lost
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in Tampa Bay Rays v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 lost leg 2: New York City FC win in Toronto FC v New York City FC · Match result @ 2.77 leg 3: Toronto Blue Jays win in Toronto Blue Jays v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	13.42	$24.84	+44%	—	pending
San Diego Padres win in Tampa Bay Rays v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.46	$14.59	+13%	-10.00	lost
San Diego Padres win in Tampa Bay Rays v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.46	$14.59	+13%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Tampa Bay Rays win	58%	18.75
San Diego Padres win	42%	2.50

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
San Diego Padres win		2.34	2.42	+3.3%
Tampa Bay Rays win		1.52	1.58	+4.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	Total
San Diego Padres	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	4
Tampa Bay Rays	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	5

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Tampa Bay Rays	San Diego Padres
congestion 21d	19.00	18.00
elo	1534.76	1530.95
elo momentum (last 5)	9.33	-7.66
matches since win	0.00	2.00
rest days	0.90	0.90
runs against avg (last 10)	3.50	3.40
runs for avg (last 10)	4.00	4.30